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Traders are waiting for the US jobs report

Traders are waiting for the US jobs report

ABM
Friday, May 6, 2022 11:35

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ABN Amro

The euro traded at about $ 1,0560 on Friday, the focus of the US Jobs Report for April.

“We do not expect large-scale movements in the dollar until the report deviates strongly from expectations,” ABN AMRO currency expert Georget Boyle told ABM Financial News on Friday. “Currently, regardless of further developments in Ukraine and its environs, we think the value of the dollar is more or less the same. After today, we expect the market to turn its attention to politics and therefore remain vigilant,” Boele said.

This week, several central banks introduced interest rate hikes. Bone stood in two of them. Initially, the Bank of England. As generally expected, the latter raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.00 per cent. The referendum and minutes pointed to a deeply divided monetary policy committee.

“That section of MPC members reflects the policy-oriented policy tightening of the bank. They see the need to keep inflation expectations well, which is a large inflation-driven wave of inflation. Boele said Friday.

The central bank has raised inflation expectations for the foreseeable future and is skeptical that it will reach its inflation target over the next three years. The updated forecasts and monetary policy outlook continue to contradict market expectations. The market expects more significant policy tightening. As a result, the British pound fell.

“We adjusted our vision,” Boele says. “We have added another rate hike to our estimate and now see bank interest rates peaking at 1.5 per cent. We expect the hikes to take place during policy meetings in June and August. In our view, the risk of a recession is greater than the risk. In our new view, we expect interest rate hikes to be lower than the market. Therefore, we expect some weakness.

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Following the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday evening, ABN AMRO expects to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at its June and July meetings. “However, we expect the policy rate range to reach 2.5 to 2.75 per cent by the end of this year. Expect rates of 2.78 percent, which is close to our point of view.

The Consumer Price Index for April will be released in the United States next Wednesday.

German production fell 3.9 percent in March this year.

For U.S. job growth, U.S. labor market experts expect 400,000 jobs compared to 431,000 in March. Unemployment is expected to fall to 3.5 percent from 3.6 percent.

Speakers on Friday include Atlanta Fed President Rafael Postik, San Francisco’s Mary Daley, St. Louis James Bullard and Central Bank President Christopher Waller.

The euro rose 0.2 percent to $ 1,0562 on Friday. The European currency was up 0.4 percent at 0.8558 British pounds. The British pound fell 0.2 percent to trade at $ 1.2333 on Friday.


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