After four people were released earlier, the agreement between Hamas and Israel now appears to lead to the release of dozens of hostages after more than a month and lead to a temporary ceasefire. Experts talk about an agreement that both sides can defend well to their supporters.

“Hamas was expected to release more hostages,” terrorism and security expert Glenn Schoen said. According to him, Hamas is playing on public opinion by releasing the hostages by showing that the hostages are receiving good treatment. “But I expected they would release more people sooner.”

Schoen: “Hamas has to buy time so the fighters can leave. This is more difficult when you have large groups of hostages.” In addition, because of the IDF’s actions in Gaza, there are fewer places where Hamas can hide hostages, Schoen says. “We have already heard reports that one or two hostages have been killed. There is a high possibility that this number will rise.”

Historian and Middle East expert Peter Malcontent points out the great pressure on Israel to reach an agreement. According to him, this is several times greater than in 2011, when Israel exchanged 1,027 Palestinian prisoners for one Israeli soldier hostage. Discussions on this matter continued for five years.

Angry: “The fact that Israel is doing so much to recover people is not new, but now you are dealing with many families of hostages. They have become a force in their own right, which the Israeli government cannot ignore.”

According to Schoen and Malcontent, Hamas exploited these feelings in the negotiations. Disgruntled: “The pressure was mounting. At first the Israeli government’s story was: We must eliminate Hamas at any cost, even if it costs the lives of the hostages. But slowly the call to take back the hostages became greater, especially from the vocal voices of family members.”

Schoen: “Hamas is monitoring public opinion. It is trying to find out what people think about its actions in Israel.” He therefore expects the armed movement to hold their mature family members hostage for a longer period in order to obtain further negotiations.

Because Israel and Hamas never speak directly, negotiations take place indirectly. Qatar and the United States, among other countries, are participating in these talks.

In the past, negotiation expert Hans Salaman conducted negotiations with private ships off the Somali coast. He stresses that these matters require a great effort from all parties, and concessions must be made by both sides. “I call it: getting over your shadow.”

Meanwhile, every conversation is meticulously recorded by the negotiating parties, Salaman says. “If you analyze those conversations carefully, you can detect a certain line. Then you get a feeling: If one person makes a certain move, the other will react in the same way, and then a game of chess emerges. You try to get into the other person’s skin.”

The ceasefire that was agreed in private helps Hamas, believes Middle East expert Malcontent. Not only does it give people in Gaza some breathing room, but it also means, he says, that journalists can enter the area and document the devastation caused by the bombings.

Disgruntled: “Time is not on Israel’s side, it’s on Hamas’ side. Israel will have to defend itself every day during the ceasefire about why it is necessary to fight again. This will become more difficult.”

Part of the deal also includes Israel gradually releasing 150 Palestinian women and minors held in Israeli prisons. This is in exchange for the release of 50 Israeli hostages in the Gaza Strip.

Indignant: “Israel actually won’t let dangerous terrorists go. Most of them are stone throwers.” Schoen also says the Israeli government can still defend this to its own people. “Because of course you have to be prepared to compromise, but not to the point where it becomes a danger to society and what happened on October 7 could happen again.”