With 74 days remaining until the elections, the current period can be considered a preliminary round. But even then we already see a number of interesting clues.
Read the full article: 74 days left
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74 days left
There are still 74 days until the election. The House of Representatives has returned to session, most of the electoral statements have been published, and some lists of candidates have been announced. Within exactly one month, lists of candidates must be submitted and the campaign will actually begin.
In a Grand Prix race, you first have to do a warm-up lap before the real start takes place. In the Netherlands there were 72 shots. We can also take into account the period we are in now, that is, the period before the beginning.
This week’s poll is no different from last week’s poll for most parties. But at the BBB we are witnessing a decline of 2 seats, after last week’s increase of 4 seats (immediately after Mona Kejzer was announced as the prime ministerial candidate/No. 2 on the list). VVD got one seat as well as JA21. (The latter party fell two seats to one last week, but was already closing in on two seats.
Prime Minister’s Choice
Just like last week, we asked those who would like to become Prime Minister if there were three to choose from. We now see a clear difference with last week’s result. Keijzer was in first place at that time, but fell to third place, and Yeşilgöz rose from third place to first, the differences are not large, but compared to last week we see a clear shift.
The chart below shows the choices of BBB, VVD and PvdA/GroenLinks voters in PS2023 and NSC voters at this time last week compared to this week. It is good to see how Yeşilgoz’s position has strengthened among VVD, BBB and NSC voters, and Mona Kejzer’s position has weakened. It is not clear whether this is because the previous poll was conducted within 24 hours of the BBB’s announcement or whether there were events in the past week that somewhat influenced the BBB’s position.
It is good to see in this table that only 50% of BBB voters in PS2023 indicate they will now vote BBB and 30% NSC. Current NSC voters prefer Keijzer, but the gap with Yeşilgöz is clearly narrowing.
Top 5 parties
National Security Council
Since September 2021, when Peter Omtsigt continued alone as an MP, we have measured his electoral potential 8 times. 7 out of 8 times we achieved a score between 24 and 30 seats. (The 46 results published six weeks ago were a measure of input and output for the Volkskrant newspaper. It is a result that probably indicates overall potential rather than the actual result.)
A score of 25-30 seems to be a rather difficult starting point for Peter Omtzgut. The composition and size of his list and potential prime ministerial candidate may mean some changes until October 9th, but I don’t expect very big changes. Then the campaign (and discussions, in any form) begins and then forces that have not yet come into play will emerge. Umtzigt is now “winning” voters from many parties, but this does not mean that these voters have written off the party to which they belong. If disillusionment with/by Umjts arises during the election campaign, things can quickly go the other way.
After Rutte’s departure, the party had the advantage of having a political leader considered the “new kid on the block” in this position. The dissatisfaction of many party voters with this party, which was in a government that included, among others, D66, could disappear like snow under the sun. VVD could go even higher than they are now and get closer to the score they achieved last time (34th). This party’s Achilles’ heel may be that some of the party’s voters do not want the party to govern with the PvdA/GroenLinks after the elections. But it seems they have no alternative at the BBB or NSC after all,
The latest poll by IPSOS (1Vandaag) suggests that this combination has now fallen by 7 seats after the end of July (from 27 to 20). Ipsos conducted two measurements between the beginning of July and the beginning of September, each involving more than 1,000 participants. During that period we conducted 6 surveys with an average of 5,000 participants.
Based on the polls we conducted (and those conducted in previous months) we can say the following:
- The PvdA + GroenLinks group barely gained more seats than the two parties separately after PS2023.
- With the Timmermans, the group gained approximately 3 additional seats.
- This combination costs NSC 2 to 3 seats
- The electoral power of this combination has weakened somewhat recently.
Overall, PvdA+GroenLinks is two seats lower than at the end of June. Therefore, we do not see a decrease of 7 seats as reported by Ipsos.
The question is to what extent this mix can increase in the near future. The space upstairs didn’t seem to be very large. Perhaps the buzz surrounding the party leader of the Party for the Animals will play into this group’s favour.
This party bears the greatest electoral burden for the National Security Council. Without this party, the BBB would now be up 20 seats. Developments in the near future surrounding the National Security Council and the selection of the Prime Minister could mean either a significant increase or a significant decrease in the BBB.
In the 2021 House of Representatives elections, this party fared much better than it did in the 2019 and 2023 Governorate Council elections. The issue of “immigration/asylum” is a much more attractive issue electorally for the FPOe than Climate or Nitrogen. The fact that the Party for Freedom is no longer excluded by the VVD may also lead to a different dynamic surrounding that party. It is unclear if a real “battle” will break out over who becomes the biggest, and if that happens the Party for Freedom, just like the BBB, will suffer electorally.
There appears to be no candidate among the other parties for more than 10 seats. If there is a fierce battle between two or three parties over who will be the largest, the suffering of those smaller parties will be greater.
A big difference from previous elections
In the 2017 and 2021 elections, four parties were needed to form the government. It seems that this time it will be possible with three parties. The problem, however, is that the National Security Council does not have any seats in the Senate, so the chance of a three-party government emerging is slim.
If a strong coalition agreement is attempted in the same way as in 2017 and 2021, the formation may take longer than the previous record formation.
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