December will be another good month for the stock market, as predicted by more than half of the investment professionals who participated in the month Stock market survey by Corné van Zeijl of Actiam. Market experts put their cards back on ASML. According to them, the fair party is over for ArcelorMittal and Just Eat Takeaway.

Experts saw that November was sunny. And this prediction came true: the AEX rose 8% after it had already added 5% in November.

According to most stock market experts, December will be another good month for the stock market

According to experts, it doesn’t stop there. More than half of the 72 respondents expect the AEX to rise further in December. Less than 20% expect a decline.

Vote for the month of December is as follows:

• 51.4% are optimistic (up from 52.8% last month)
• 29.2% neutral (vs 25.0% last month)
• 19.4% are pessimistic (up from 22.2% in November)
• Balance: +31.9% (was +30.6%)

The forecast for the next six months is somewhat more economical

Forecasts for the next six months are less prolific. Just over a third are optimistic, while 27.8% expect the AEX to fall. In general, experts are a little more gloomy than last month.

Here are the forecasts for the next six months:

• 37.5% are optimistic (up from 43.1% last month)
• 34.7% neutral (vs 34.7% last month)
• 27.8% are pessimistic (up from 22.2%)
• Balance: +9.7% (was +20.8%)

Will there be a rally at the end of the year?

It’s become a tradition: Every year as the holiday approaches, investors wonder if a year-end rally is imminent. This is what the additional question was about.

Van Zeijl asked the experts to choose from the following four proposals:

• We already had an end-of-year rally.
• December will show a correction this year
• We get a nice follow through that puts the bear market behind us
• The year-end rally is an exaggerated phenomenon.

38% fear that the year-end rally is already behind us. A similar percentage (39%) expects a good follow-up. So it can freeze or thaw.

6% expect a market correction in December, while 17% think the year-end rally is exaggerated.

November Stock Picks: Upgrading stocks have performed well

A permanent part of Actiam’s stock market survey is an overview of stock market experts’ most and least favorite stocks: top stocks and stocks. How good were respondents in the previous survey’s predictions?

It turns out that the list of toppers is exceptionally well chosen. The first four picks all showed AEX index stubs, each with a two-digit return. Prosus in particular turned out to be a successful choice, given a price hike of no less than 42%. Thus, the average increase in share price from the shopping list is impressive: 21.8%.

The list of floppy disks shows a mixed picture. Just Eat Takeaway (+24%) and ArcelorMittal (+14%) significantly outperformed the AEX. Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield and Adyen did what they had to do: stay behind.

Overall, the long/short dummy fund yielded over 10%. In doing so, the experts fared much better than the private investors who participated in last month’s offerings National investor opinion poll IEX: with them there was a decrease of 14%.

November toppers	efficiency	Flexible November	efficiency
ASML	17.4%	Just eat takeaway	+24.4%
Positives	41.9%	Unibel Rodamco Westfield	+5.8%
Phillips	10.7%	Convicted	+0.8%
a job	16.4%	Arcelor Mittal	+13.9%

December’s picks: ASML, ArcelorMittal and JET favourites

Finally, December’s Picks Which stocks do stock market experts think are good cards and which should we avoid?

According to experts, ASML has more to offer. The ASMI Industry Fellow is also very successful. Adyen was still on the broomstick last month, but that may change now. Unilever and ING complete the December buying list.

For ArcelorMittal and Just Eat Takeaway, the party after last month’s price explosion is over, many investment experts fear. They end up again in a row of floppers. According to many, this was also enough for Philips: this share goes from top to flop. The Randstad is the fourth major fund that, according to experts, we should avoid for some time.

December hats	balance*	Floppers Dec	balance*
ASML	13	Arcelor Mittal	-11
ASMI	8	Just eat takeaway	-4
Convicted	4	Randstad	-3
Unilever	2	Phillips	-3
a job	2

* Balance represents the number of positive responses minus the number of negative responses.