December 5, 2021

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Slotcall: AEX verpulvert recordstand

Last call: Things are going completely wrong in Turkey

The AEX closes 1.6% in the red, which makes us by far the worst stock exchange in Europe. The main index is full of technology stocks and they are actually underperforming today. Heavyweights like ASML (-5.5%) and Adyen (-2.4%) get a big slap on the nose.

Sentiment around growth stocks deteriorated after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s reappointment. It is tighter than its discount and as a result the interest rates in the capital market are rising. This is not appropriate for stocks where profits lie in the future, such as technology stocks.

But the biggest blows are taking place in Turkey. The Turkish lira is losing nearly 12% against the euro today. In the past week, the Turkish currency has seen evaporation by more than a fifth of its value. This drop in prices comes as a result of some statements by President Erdogan.

The good man could not resist asserting that high interest rates were precisely the cause of high inflation in his country. I don’t think there is even a single independent economist who agrees with him. Investors are speculating on a further decline in the official interest rate by selling their lira positions. Thus, companies with exposure to Turkey can prepare a write-off in advance.

Intertrust

battle for Intertrust (+15.4%) Not a fight yet. CVC announced last week that it was offering €18 for a stake from Intertrust, but has yet to receive the financial services provider. There are different parties in the market willing to pay a much higher price. Up to €22 stated.

For investment banks JPMorgan Cazenove and Bank Degroof, this is a reason to increase the target price to 22 euros. The current price is about 9% lower than this. It is always tempting to take this 9%, but on the other hand, there is still a party that already offers 22 euros.

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Now that there are so many parties in the market, there is little chance that the acquisition will not take place. This reduces the risk of investing in Intertrust, causing the price to rise sharply. Rumors that CVC has been outbid, of course helps too.

PostNL

PostNL (-3.2%) at the angle where the blows fall. The stake has been in poor shape in recent months, and now problems are piling up in Belgium. Things are very wrong in three post and parcel delivery depots, because things that happen here are said to be unacceptable.

This relates, among other things, to violations of undeclared work and sham installations in connection with independence. Underage employees may also be employed. The problem lies with the subcontractors who do not respect Belgian law. However, PostNL does not adequately monitor this.

Analyst Martin Krum does not expect this disaster to have significant financial consequences, but it does do the necessary damage to the image. The parcel delivery company is currently priced at 9 times the estimated profit for 2022. You can read in the article below whether the stock is worth buying.

annuities

Fees on 10-year government papers are on the rise. The Dutch interest rate rose by at least six basis points to -0.09%.

wide market

  • from AEX (-1.6%) and with this we are far behind DAX (-1.1%) and CAC (-0.7%).
  • Wall Street Deliver the inaugural win. Nasdaq is the biggest loser, minus 1.0%.
  • from euro Gains 0.3% and is trading at 1.127 against the dollar.
  • from much ado It rose 2.6% to 19.7 points.
  • Went (-1.0%) in silver (-3.6%) have a day off.
  • oil: WTI (+2.6%) and Brent (+2.1%) on the other hand are finding their way higher. This is remarkable, because the United States, China, India, Japan and the United Kingdom announced that they will reduce their strategic oil reserves in order to contain the rise in oil prices.
  • Bitcoin (+1.4%) stay close to home.
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Aldmarq

  • Zombies are being beaten today. ASML (-5,5%), iron (-3.9%) in ASMI (-6.0%) Diving. The latter opened up to 10% less, but that was probably a fat finger.
  • I am convicted (-2.4%) suffer from weak sentiment towards technology stocks.
  • Defensive ports such as I hold (+ 0,3%), Royal Dutch Shell (+1.1%) in Unilever (+ 0.8%) on the other hand. A typical case of sector rotation.
  • Financial data is still relatively dry. a job (-0.5%) Keeps the damage limited thanks to higher interest rates.
  • Bee Philips (-1.8%) Goes from bad to worse. It’s unclear how many claims the company can expect from the US, which is why investors are already heading the way.
  • It’s a mystery to me why retail real estate is in such good shape today. Unibail Rodamco (+1.2%) in Eurocommercial properties (+0.6%) Rising slightly in a falling market.
  • Lucas Pauls (-1.3%) They cannot benefit from Kepler Cheuvreux’s buy recommendation. The target price increases by $2 to $14.
  • Half year numbers Axis (+0.3%) For the broken fiscal year 2021/2022 there were no surprises. However, the market reacts positively. Probably because the Hull Factory wasn’t late again.

Advice

  • Intertrust: to €22 from €17 purchase – JPMorgan Cazenove
  • Intertrust: to €22 from €19 and buy – Bank Degroof
  • Lucas Bols: to buy from Keep up to 14€ from 12€ – Kepler Cheuvreux
  • OCI: up to €31 from €30 and buy – Kepler Cheuvreux

Agenda for Wednesday, November 24th

consensus

  1. 10 o’clockGermany IFO nov . business climate97,9Warning symbol
  2. 14:30US Durable Goods Orders Oct+ 0.2% per month
  3. 14:30US Q3 GDP (Revised)+ 2.2% Quarterly QualityWarning symbol
  4. 16:00US Consumer Confidence, Michigan Nov66.9
  5. 16:00US New Home Sales Oct802KWarning symbol
  6. 16:00US Personal Spending Oct+ 0.8% per month
  7. 18:00HAL Q3 numbers