The price of gold, which is still $1,751 an ounce (31.1 grams) on Friday, is down about 4% this year, with a slight rebound, and is down as much as 15% since its peak on March 8. Consumers are getting less and less gold.
“The main reasons are the aggressive tightening of monetary policy by central banks,” Georgette Boyle, gold specialist at the bank, said in a new report.
Additionally, excluding inflation expectations, real yields have risen 150 basis points in the US this year. As the dollar strengthens, this is usually a bad indication of the value of gold.
Next year, there is at most $1,900 in a barrel of gold, $100 less than the bank previously calculated. We expect the USD to remain relatively strong. We also think that real interest rates in the US are close to or have already peaked,” said Boyle, previously voted the best gold price estimate among analysts at Bloomberg.
By the end of this year, the price of gold sold by consumers will have fallen, and Boele lowered his forecast to $1,700. Then it continues to rise to $1,900, but stay away from the spring peak of $2,043.
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