Globally, 775 million tonnes of wheat is expected to be harvested in the coming harvest year Department of Agriculture of the United States (USDA). This is four lakh less than last year.

At the same time, demand is high: the USDA expects 788 million tons of wheat to be consumed worldwide next year. Harvest takes many steps, resulting in grain shortages.

Concerns about wheat shortages have been around for some time. But only now has it been calculated for the first time how big the deficit will be.

War in Ukraine

The Russian invasion of Ukraine was a major blow. Many parts of the country could not be harvested due to the war. Also, the yield is low.

Another culprit is the weather: due to the drought, the harvest in Morocco is at its lowest level since 2008. And in India, agricultural farmers have been affected by the heat waves. Small harvests are also expected in the European Union and China.

Demand is greater than supply

Things are going well in Canada and Russia, and in Kazakhstan and the United States. But the extra harvest available in those countries is not enough to compensate for the low yields in other parts of the world.

Look for alternatives

Demand exceeds supply, so consumers are looking for alternatives. That search is also triggered by higher wheat prices.

World wheat prices peaked in March after Russia launched a war in Ukraine. That high wheat price is certainly noticeable in the Netherlands as well: according to figures from the Federal Bureau of Statistics, bread and cereals in April were up nearly 6 per cent year-on-year.