A recent analysis by Washington and military experts says months of Russian offensives are beginning to change Ukraine’s weather, with the cold now giving way to mild spring temperatures. The disadvantage for both armies is that it begins the muddy season, which makes large-scale military operations on unpaved roads very difficult.
“We know that President Putin is planning to strike again,” said John Kirby, a spokesman for the US National Security Council. “Now that the weather is improving, he is planning new offensive operations in several directions. We are trying to get Ukraine to defend itself and take offensive operations.’ The Ukrainian high command is planning a major offensive in the coming months, possibly in May.
The West and Kyiv last year assumed that the Russian military would launch a major offensive in the spring of 2023 to decide the war. However, in recent months, the Russians have already launched an offensive on various fronts, particularly in Bagmot.
However, this did not happen to the extent that was initially expected. There was confusion over whether Moscow had launched a major war to seize Donbass. The attacks began in January after the Kremlin appointed Valery Gerasimo, the country’s top military commander, to lead the war.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, a US military think tank that closely follows the war in Ukraine, the conclusion should be that the Russian military has made little progress after months of fighting. In the first months of the year, despite the deployment of 300,000 mobilized troops, the Russians were able to make only “small tactical gains,” military experts say.
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Steves Ramdari has been a foreign teacher D Volkskrant Security is its main specialty.
The Russian spring offensive is now approaching its peak, experts conclude. Even if additional troops are sent, it is highly unlikely that Russian soldiers will achieve a “dramatically different outcome” later this year, the agency says. “Ukraine is therefore in a good position to regain the initiative and launch counter-offensives in critical sectors along the frontline,” the agency said of the major counteroffensive Kyiv plans to launch in the spring.
There are only two famous generals in the entire Russian army.
The myth of an invincible General Frost has already been debunked #urmi.
Now we have to deal with General Mutt. pic.twitter.com/rnjLPrCl1Y
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) March 19, 2023
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The company paints a picture of the achievements of the Russian military that leaves nothing to be desired in terms of clarity. Combat units, such as the fleet’s elite units at Voehledar, have suffered such heavy casualties that they are reinforced by reservists by art and flying.
At Bachmoet, no territorial gains were made by the Russians last week, despite heavy attacks on Ukrainian positions. However, in recent days, Russian attacks in Pakmut have decreased. This could be a sign that they want to strike elsewhere in the front. At Avdiivka, south of Bakhmut, the Russians would suffer heavy losses in an attempt to encircle the city. Attacks have increased here in recent days.
The Russian move is likely to force Ukrainian units in neighboring cities in the Donetsk region to move to Avdiyvka to defend the city. According to the institute, despite the Russian attacks, a Ukrainian withdrawal from the city is still not on the agenda.
Military experts point out that the Russian high command has not yet deployed an important unit of the First Defense Tank Army. Parts of this unit sent to Luhansk could be used in a major new offensive planned by Moscow, according to the institute. “However, given the previous failure of large combat formations, it is unlikely that deploying regiments from this division will be operationally decisive.”
Australian Major General Mick Ryan, affiliated with the CSIS think tank, concluded that so far this year the Russians have made only “modest territorial gains” in their offensives in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
“While a lot can happen in the coming months, Gerasimo’s attack could spell defeat for the military,” Ryan said in an analysis of Russian operations. “The Russians have provided some momentum in the last couple of months, but they still haven’t taken the initiative. Not strategically or on the ground.”
The United States announced this week that it would send $350 million worth of new weapons to Ukraine. All 31 promised Abrams tanks are being delivered faster than originally planned. Nonetheless, the US Army’s main battle tank, the Abrams, is not expected to enter the battlefield until next fall.
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