I concluded the stock market report last Friday with the question of whether the disappointing labor market number of baselip processors was the result of low economic growth or the low number of qualified employees.
Economists were skeptical of job growth after the sharp disappointing end of the ATP figure, ahead of the official U.S. employment report.
Released last Friday afternoon, the number of jobs increased unexpectedly in July. Less than 943,000 jobs were created, significantly more than the expected 870,000 jobs. It fell to 5.4 percent in July from 5.9 percent in June. Economists had forecast a decline of 5.7 percent. To bring the unemployment rate to 3.5 percent before the corona, 5.7 million jobs need to be created. The monthly increase in the number of jobs is the best since August last year. The travel industry, hospitality, education and business services were the main contributors to this increase.
If we further magnify the unemployment rate, it appears that the recovery is broad-based. The employment rate (percentage of working people compared to the labor force) has risen to 61.7 percent, the highest level since the outbreak in March last year.
If we look at the total number of unemployed, including those who are unemployed, not registered as job seekers and those who want to work full time instead of part time, we see the same improvements as in the official job report. The unemployment rate, including hidden unemployment, fell to 9.2 percent in July from 9.8 percent in June.
As of this afternoon, the U.S. Department of Labor is expected to release 9.27 million unfilled vacancies (so-called) in June.
As of July 16, there were 9.8 million open positions, significantly more than the 8.7 million job seekers, according to the job site. If there is more demand than supply in the labor market, wages will rise. This represents a 0.4 per cent increase in average hourly wages on a monthly basis and a 4 per cent increase on an annual basis.
The strong employment report will be a signal to the central bank to end lax monetary policy in the future. If the monthly job growth rate continues at this rate, the central bank’s labor market targets will be achieved within six months. Financial markets also appear to be preparing for monetary policy adjustments. The United States is up 8 basis points at 1.29 percent. The euro strengthened 0.6 percent against the euro and fell 4.5 percent in the intervening period last Friday. On Wall Street, only the lower part of the weekend was closed. Technology transfer is actually more sensitive to interest rate developments.
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