It was a stunning choice of words by Prime Minister Rutte last night in the debate in the House of Representatives on the euro summit, which will be held in Brussels in the coming days. If Israel launches a ground attack on the city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, it would “change the rules of the game and cause a humanitarian catastrophe.” He confirmed that Rutte also said this to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.

There are 1.4 million Palestinians living in the city of Rafah, located in the south of the Gaza Strip, many of whom live in camps in very poor conditions. There are serious shortages of food and medical care. The outgoing government will meet immediately in the event of an Israeli invasion. “It is a political moment that will have consequences,” Rutte said.

But the question is: what are the consequences? Until now, the Netherlands has not been at the forefront of criticism of Israel. Historian Peter Malcontent of Utrecht University believes this may change. He was surprised that Rutte spoke of “changing the rules of the game.”

“It is possible that the Dutch position within the European Union will change and that the Netherlands will turn more towards the Belgians, Spaniards and Irish,” which are the countries most critical of Israeli action against the Palestinians.

Lawyer and Middle East affairs expert Laila Al-Zwaini believes that the outgoing Prime Minister believes that the time has come for a more critical voice against Israel, especially since the United States is witnessing a transformation. He added, “We know Rutte. He does nothing without America. He will certainly coordinate this with Biden.”

It is to his advantage that Rutte has visited Netanyahu most often among European leaders, showing that the Netherlands stands firmly behind Israel.

However, the term “game changer” also surprised her. “Perhaps ‘basin’ would be a better word. It cannot be otherwise. The humanitarian catastrophe is that children are starving to death. Children are not Hamas supporters.” Compare this to the refugee crisis in 2015, where the controversial photo of Aylan, the three-year-old boy who washed up dead on a beach in Turkey, was the game-changer.

Neither dares to say whether the Netherlands’ position will fundamentally change the diplomatic landscape, or whether concrete steps could follow. Sanctions can only be imposed on Israel in a European context.

In theory, the EU could do something regarding the EU-Israel Association Agreement, for example suspend it, “but you can only do it once,” says Peter Malcontent. “This is the nuclear option.” If that happens, Israeli exports to the European Union, its largest sales market, will become so expensive that they will likely collapse.

It seems likely that the Netherlands and the European Union will initially use increasingly harsh language toward Israel. Brussels is working on issuing a statement about the Rafah invasion. “The word ‘game changer’ also fits the bill,” says Malcontent. “We can come to one conclusion: the Netherlands is undergoing a transformation.”

“We usually do it when the United States and Germany do it.” Washington and Berlin, usually unconditional allies of Israel, are increasingly criticizing the war in Gaza. An Israeli delegation is expected to arrive in Washington next week. The White House has already announced that during that meeting it will propose alternatives to a large-scale raid on Rafah.

Al-Zwaini also sees this development. She believes that Rutte can now make a different statement without losing face and without fear for his position. “But he doesn’t have a big heart for people in need, he mainly goes with his great friends. And you can hope that Rottie still has the weight to get something done.”