This is expected to be a contraction of 1.5 percent Search by ING. In recent years, sales of smoking products accounted for 6 to 7 percent of supermarket sales. Therefore, supermarkets will lose 3.2 billion euros in turnover annually, and more than 1.5 billion every six months.
It is expected that 35 per cent of supermarket turnover will now be generated in tobacco and convenience stores, increasing turnover in this sector by 10 per cent. ING expects revenues from tobacco sales at gas stations to increase by approximately 55 percent in the coming years. Approximately 10% of turnover will be spent abroad or disappear as a result of government policy.
Increase wages
“The decline in supermarket sales volume will become evident mainly in the second half of 2024,” says Theis Geiger, economist at ING. This is because most supermarkets will continue to sell tobacco until the ban comes into effect on July 1. Department store chains Albert Heijn and Lidl have previously stopped selling tobacco. Albert Heijn stopped selling at the beginning of this year, and Lidl removed the smoking products from shelves on 1 October 2022.
Aside from the loss of sales from tobacco sales, ING expects a slight rebound in supermarket sales figures. There has been a sharp decline in the past two years due to significant price increases. According to research, many Dutch people will do better in 2023, because many wages have risen more than usual. A full recovery in sales figures is not expected this year, due to moderate expectations for economic growth in 2024.
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