• Robin for example

  Economics Editor

Fans of a good glass of whiskey have had a hard time for a long time. The grand prize has been asked for a fine single malt whisky. On the one hand, because more and more people have discovered the holy grail of whisky, and on the other hand because investors have invested in the drink due to low interest rates.

It now appears that the whiskey craze is coming to a cautious end. “This is probably a good thing, because prices have gotten pretty out of control,” says Patrick van Zuidam, of Zuidam Distillers from Paarl-Nassau, about the expected “normalization” of whiskey prices. “Fortunately. Whiskey is made to be enjoyed, not looked at.”

This trend should make a glass of good malt, aged between ten and twenty years, affordable again. “The average consumer will have a good time,” says Johannes Mosbrugger. The Austrian tracks the monthly price of whiskey on its website Whiskystats. Sort of a stock index like the S&P 500. “But for the 500 most popular whiskeys in the world.”

The index shows that prices for these whiskeys have fallen since their peak in March 2022. Initially, this decline was noticeable at auctions, Mossbrugger says. “There you now see old whiskey being sold at prices you haven’t seen for years. Prices in the shop are always lagging behind those at auctions. But we are also seeing the first price corrections there, although they are still small.”

Perhaps the reason is the decline of investors. They turned to whiskey because low interest rates meant they wouldn’t benefit as much from the money in a savings account. They hoped that the value of the bottles of whiskey would increase quickly.

This has also been proven in practice, as shown by the Moosbrugger Index. But since central banks in Europe and the United States began raising interest rates significantly about two years ago, the buzz around whiskey among investors has waned.

Aside from the investor frenzy, production was ramped up ten years ago to meet growing demand from regular drinkers. In addition to expansions into major whiskey brands, several smaller distilleries have also been added.

In the meantime, new production of sought-after single malt should come to market slowly after years of maturation. However, the price in the store has not decreased yet. Rumors are circulating online that large Scottish producers in particular are keeping scarcity and therefore prices high by storing new production a little longer.

Whether this is actually the case remains a matter of speculation. “I thought a lot would come to the market by now,” answers van Zuydam. “Many of the larger distilleries seem to still have a bit of stock. In any case, it’s difficult for independent bottlers to get good barrels.”

The production capacity at Baarle Nassau has also been increased several times to meet the growing demand for single malt. “Since the 1990s,” says van Zuydam. “All aspects must be increased together, from grain milling, fermentation, distillation, aging in casks and bottling. Increasing one aspect is usually of no benefit.”

Which is why it takes so long before new single malts are available: “Whisky has to mature for at least three years. That’s the legal minimum. But in practice, whiskey often has to mature for a decade or more. Mature storage barrels are also relatively large to allow production to continue to be able to do high volume.

Expanding production is also a gamble. Because who knows if whiskey will still be as popular as it is today in ten years? “You have to have a crystal ball through which you can see the future in about ten years,” van Zuydam sums up.

No one expects whiskey prices to really fall. According to Rui Cruz of Ootmarsum’s small Distillery Sculte in Twente, this is because the drink is still very popular among consumers.

“It used to be a drink for old people. But nowadays whiskey is also very popular among young people. There is always only a certain amount of a certain type of whisky. This keeps the prices a little higher.”