September 20, 2021

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RIVM: If the vaccination rate for young people does not increase, that could determine the rest of the epidemic

RIVM: If the vaccination rate for young people does not increase, that could determine the rest of the epidemic

The aura numbers seem to have stabilized. The daily number of positive tests and the number of new hospital admissions and ICU admissions both move within narrow margins.

But, despite the large number of vaccinations, the numbers are still at a much higher level than they were at this time last year. Vaccines also have a very high efficacy against the most contagious delta variant.

NOS spoke about this, among other things, with Jaap van Dessel, director of the Center for Infectious Diseases Control (CIb) at RIVM and Jaco Walinga, chief of models at that institute.

in a The last message to Parliament Minister De Jonge of VWS writes about the extension of the corona law that the corona law will not be necessary once the epidemic is under control worldwide. Seems to be a distant perspective.

Van Diesel: “Covid-19 is not at all under control all over the world. The situation is stable in a number of places. There is an increase in a lot of countries in the European Union. And in a number of countries where the situation was completely calm before, you are now seeing cases Big outbreaks. But all those situations in different countries require their own interpretation, due to differences in contexts. Our task is first and foremost to interpret the Dutch numbers.”

You can have things in order in your country, but if the coronavirus spreads freely relatively near you, it can still cause a lot of problems, for example due to variables that appear in countries where vaccination is still minimal.

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Van Dijel: “This is a very valid point. Holland center For Europe and also a kind of city-state in light of population density and built environment. That is why we have always emphasized that, of course, we are also very dependent on the situation abroad.

And that it is important for late summer what is the circulation of the virus in the Netherlands, as well as the uncertainty about importing the virus from abroad. Unfortunately, we only know the source of nearly a third of all positive tests in the past week.

In more than 20 percent of cases, this was related to an introduction from the outside. This therefore contributes significantly to the circulation of the virus that is already present. There is now a certain stability in the Netherlands, but there is a dynamism that will determine the developments in the coming period.”

Education will open fully on Monday. He. She Council of Ministers I decided otherwise for the purpose of advised. Is this a concern?

Jaco Walinga: “The number of corona cases, the number of new infections and the R number remain fairly stable, but this will not remain the case if we do nothing. We are at the end of the holiday period and this means that there are a lot of imports of the virus coming from abroad.

All kinds of education will open again, with few actions left. How will that work? This depends, among other things, on the vaccination rate among pupils and students. Vaccine readiness among people aged 12-17 and 18-24 was 85 percent, well above the target 75 percent vaccination coverage for those groups.

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But if you look at the latest numbers, half of people ages 12 to 17 and only 65 percent of 18 to 24 years old got their first shot. Maybe it was because of the holidays, maybe because they had less time because their turn was late. It would be very good to know that the vaccination rate will increase in that group.

If this does not happen, it may play an important and critical role in the further course of the epidemic. You can look at it optimistically, if the desire to vaccinate is really high, it is easy to earn a lot.”