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In 2050, the Netherlands will become more crowded and more diverse than now, and moderation in migration and better distribution of limited space is necessary. The Government Commission on Demographic Developments 2050 reached these conclusions.
The Committee believes that further guidance is needed, because the Netherlands is one of the countries with the strongest population growth in Europe and also one of the most densely populated, where the pace of population growth in particular raises problems.
“Choose moderate growth that doesn’t require too much,” explains the committee’s Richard van Zoll. “Growth that keeps the economy afloat and thus ensures that education, health care and housing are available to all.”
Clear choices
The committee, whose members include scientists Paul Schaefer and Monica C. Diane Ho and politicians Marco Pastorz and Tamara Van Ark, advises politicians to focus more on the migrant workers they attract.
In addition, all sorts of other buttons could be turned to deal with problems arising from simultaneous population growth and aging: from more investment in the inclusion of newcomers to the digitalization of healthcare, housing and greater communal living arrangements.
According to Van Zoll, the Netherlands must prevent population decline. “Deflation hurts the economy and does not provide room for desired migration. Deflation also exacerbates an aging population. We also simply need the economy to be able to pay for education, health care and housing.”
The Cabinet established the committee in July 2022 due to the need for guidance on how to address demographic issues such as aging and migration, a topic on which Rutte’s fourth government was deeply divided. Ultimately, the cabinet fell due to a conflict over limiting refugee migration.
The committee now recommends working with so-called “target values” for population growth and looking to the future more than a single Cabinet term. Moderate growth to 19 or 20 million people by 2050 would be ideal, but to achieve this goal, politicians must make clear choices quickly.
Migration is unpredictable
In the nearly 400-page report, which discusses in detail the history and science of population development, these choices are only made clear to a limited extent. It contains many options that were previously mentioned in previous reports.
The Commission goes further with proposals to limit the migration of low-quality workers, slow down labor migration from new EU countries and set a target number for net migration.
The Committee notes that migration guidance is only possible to a limited extent. While aging is a trend that will certainly continue, migration is unpredictable. According to the committee, hard targets or statements about when the Netherlands will be “full” are also not useful, because technology and other developments could change all that. The Migration Advisory Council had previously said that a target value for asylum migration was not desirable, but perhaps for labor migration.
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This committee also wrote that asylum migration is too complex to limit on humanitarian grounds. However, such a target value, along with taking population density into account, could help, for example, in discussions with the European Union on the distribution of asylum migrants. Moreover, most of the Commission’s proposals on immigration target labor migration.
Uncontrolled growth
The committee says it assumes that in 2050, 26 to 49 percent of the Dutch population will be first- and second-generation immigrants. Now it’s 25 percent. Population growth is desirable because the alternative, deflation or stagnation, would also exacerbate existing problems of aging and labor market shortages and would prevent economic growth.
On the contrary, uncontrolled growth also brings problems: for example, rapid population growth already causes problems with housing and social cohesion, for example in neighborhoods where migrant workers who have only been in the Netherlands for a short time live close to each other, Increasing pressure on the population. Facilities, such as education and integration support.
The Commission contradicts the often-heard idea that the problems of aging can be solved through labor migration: migration actually puts pressures on services such as education and care, and migrants themselves age later.
A different political constellation
The report is being presented against a different political background than when the commission began. The political parties now sitting around the table to see if they can form a new government all support limiting immigration. However, the question remains whether they are willing to adopt all of the committee’s recommendations.
Peter Umtzigt of the National Security Council would likely support the committee’s target number. The advice boils down to what he also calls for: aiming for a moderate balance in migration. The proposal to choose more carefully courses for international students taught in English would also be welcomed.
But other recommendations, such as investment in employment and support in other countries, may receive less attention. According to the committee, this is necessary to support reception in the region, so that migration pressure reduces. But the FDP wants to make deep cuts in development aid, and the FDP wants to get rid of it entirely.
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