In a world of war, conflict and clashing great powers pursuing their own interests, the chances of success at the COP28 climate summit are not very good. This is what the European Union climate negotiator Wopke Hoekstra said on the eve of the climate summit in Dubai in an interview with Norwegian Refugee Council.

According to Hoekstra, who has only been in office for two months, there is a lot at stake. At the same time, he acknowledges that geopolitical preconditions are difficult. “I feel that in all the conversations I have. For one person, the catastrophic war the Russians are inflicting on Ukraine is very high in the frontal lobe. For others, it is the major upheaval in the Middle East. But also consider the tension in the Indo-Pacific region.”

In this world of great power clashes, where each side promotes divergent interests, climate negotiation is difficult. “So you have to be realistic about how tough the competition we are in together is.” And: “To be fair, the chance of success is not very high, but paradoxically it is very necessary.”

In talking with Norwegian Refugee Council Hoekstra says he assumes the scientific consensus that nothing remains on the planet except red lines. ‘It makes it easier and harder. While in normal negotiations you might say “we have to get somewhere in the middle,” the harsh reality here is that that is not good enough. So this is a big responsibility for the European Union and also for me personally.”

Hoekstra also expressed his intention to pressure formerly more prosperous developing countries, such as the Gulf states or China, to do more on climate. “Europe shares our ambition with a very large group of countries in the Global South. This provides room for negotiations.

Finally, Hoekstra does not expect his job as climate commissioner to become more difficult due to the results of the Dutch elections, which were won by the climate-skeptic Party for Freedom. “Climate policy is mostly set at the European level,” he says. “There is still a lot of consensus in the Netherlands about the climate approach.”