For the first time in years, the VVD is no longer at the top of the seat polls, the BBB being the largest party

For the first time in years, the VVD is no longer at the top of the seat polls, the BBB being the largest party

With 30 seats, BoerBurgerBeweging (BBB) ​​is by far the largest party in the Netherlands. For the first time in 6 years, the VVD party has to cede its leadership position to another party, according to the monthly seat poll conducted by EenVandaag and Ipsos.

After winning the county council elections, the BBB’s lead also continued in the national elections.

Especially converts from right-wing parties

The party currently holds one seat in the House of Representatives. There are no fewer than 29 in this poll. Almost a third of these new voters, a group that together makes up 8 seats, have stayed home during the parliamentary elections in 2021.

The remaining votes for Caroline van der Plas’ party come from a wide range of parties, especially from the right of the political spectrum. For example, the voters mainly come from the VVD, PVV and CDA, but also some of the voters who voted for SP in the last elections are now members of the BBB.

How do the voters move in relation to the parliamentary elections?

PVV halved in 6 months

The VVD currently holds 26 seats in the poll. The last time the VVD was surpassed in the EenVandaag survey was in 2016 and 2017. Then it was the PVV that scored higher.

Geert Wilders’ party also did relatively well last year. Six months ago, the PVV won about 20 seats in the poll, but the party has almost halved in a few months and is now 11 years old.

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PvdD on profit

The BBB and VVD are head and shoulders above the rest. At a great distance follows the party group which has about 11 seats. In addition to PVV, these are GroenLinks, Party for the Animals (PvdD), PvdA, and D66.

PvdD is gaining more voters and now has 11 (+3) seats. GroenLinks at 12 (+1). PvdA and D66 both lose nothing and are at 10 each.

Full poll of seats

D66 voters will not vote now

PvdA has been hovering between 10 and 12 seats for some time now, but for D66, 10 seats is a low point since the last parliamentary election. Then the party won 24 seats. So less than half of that is left after two years.

Many runaway voters don’t see an alternative right away. A group of ex-D66 voters who together represent approximately 6 seats said they would not vote if there was an election now. The rest come from mainly left-wing parties such as GroenLinks, PvdD and PvdA.

CDA and CU are roughly equal in size

The Socialist Party (8) follows behind these parties. The CDA is even lower, and with 6 seats, it’s about the same size as the ChristenUnie, which has 5 seats.

In total, the coalition won a minority of 47 seats this month. It is difficult to form a majority coalition on the basis of this poll. Even if the largest parties participate, often parties opposing each other on major issues, at least 4 parties are needed to reach more than 75 seats.

information

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about the investigation

The distribution of seats is based on research conducted by Ipsos among a representative sample of 1,002 eligible Dutch citizens. Data was collected from 21 to 24 April 2023. The research was weighted by age, gender, education, region, employment, and electoral behavior in previous parliamentary elections.

Statistical margins of +/- 1 percent apply for seats for smaller parties and +/- 2.5 percent for the largest parties. The poll was conducted as part of the Opinion Panel from April 23-25, 2023. 22,262 people participated, including 2,904 people who voted for D66 in 2021.

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