As long as Ukraine remains at war with Russia, the West can’t really give any security guarantees. This also excludes NATO membership before the end of the war, says former NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer.

He argues that the reason for this is very simple: Article 5. An attack on a NATO member state means an attack on all NATO member states. “So you don’t know what boundaries you’re defending,” he says. But this does not mean that in the meantime, the NATO summit in Vilnius cannot work in the transition period. The war must end someday, just as Ukraine will one day become a member of NATO.

According to de Hoop Scheffer, Zelensky and his associates would benefit most from accelerating this process. What’s more, Ukraine already had to deal with a “cat in a poke” in 2008. “Then NATO told Ukraine that membership was possible, but in 2023 they are not yet members and they are at war,” explains de Hoop Scheffer.

gray area

Thus Ukraine — along with Georgia — has long been in the gray zone, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has seen as a green light for attempted annexation. In 2008, Putin tried to annex Georgia, in 2014 he captured Crimea, and in 2022 he began the invasion, which continues to this day. So I hope there will be more clarity in Vilnius than there was in Bucharest in 2008. It’s about time.’

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Clarity in the form of Ukraine that will no longer need an intermediate stage to actually join NATO. In addition, de Hoop Scheffer would like to see NATO member states enter into firm commitments to enable Ukraine’s armed forces to fight back if necessary, “that Mr. Putin or his successor will not again take it into his head to attack Ukraine,” he said. Ukraine already has a very good and modern armed force, but as far as I am concerned, guarantees must be given in Vilnius – perhaps through bilateral agreements – of long-term commitments. But NATO membership is not there yet.