July 5, 2022

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Slot: draait markt weer? Shell, Arcelor en rentes vertellen het verhaal

Conclusion: Is the market going again? Shell, Arcelor and interest tell the story

Shall we run again? No, not from a bear market to a bull market, though, you never know. No, it’s a market that can be done with overvalued assets praise herto the stock market suffering a recession in prices

First of all, today, because AEX was launched with horror. This morning the index was more than -2.0% and approached this year’s low of 633.39 and the low of 633.72. Of course you already know, but the festive party craze from March 2020 to February 2021 has been completely ruled out

That’s a nice bridge to the opening sentence of this article, because of course it was technology stocks, growth and money that specifically benefited from the Covid-19 pandemic that drove the rally first and then delivered everything last. cent. Sometimes more.

All along, the broad market and serious assets – remained a core value rather than just a pretty story and a distant future. This is now changing. Because everything is falling down now, so to speak.

Shell is perhaps the best example of this, with the fund suddenly threatening to break out of the upside in just a few trading days. Because yes, the price of oil is faltering which in turn is due to recession fears. Less economic activities mean less energy consumption is the idea behind this.

Certainly, it was also noticed this morning that leagues are driving the regression and not technology, as we have been used to this year. It’s a good idea to pay attention to the coming weeks and days, because this trend will continue. This also indicates a fear of stagnation, because periods and stagnation … This can also be very bad with thick wood.

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Perhaps the most important signal, however, comes from the bond market. With these stocks dying today, you might think they’re rising again, but look.

However, trends remain harsh, see here the German (orange) and American (purple) 10-year crops. Nothing to see yet, except maybe (not yet seen) higher.

However, the market inflation expectations… falling?

Yes, as well as long-term interest rate expectations. I don’t have those dates, but listen to today’s short podcast by Lukas Daalder, a senior at BlackRock and my longtime scholarship educator. Daalder also has (original) notes on interest rates and inflation, which you may not have seen before.

The point is that in the event of a recession, we may soon stop talking about inflation and interest rates will go back up. the valleys† Central banks will pump again, you may read in the comments below.

From early this morning, this also indicates that…

Two other special pictures have a big impact on inflation. Fertilizer prices in the US have been going down for some time now and it’s almost one-to-one with food prices. Did you see the top here? Just say it and watch your OCIs.

Used cars were not left unpunished in the explosion of inflation and here are also the first scratches in the paint.

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The Sentinel, Bloomberg Spot Commodities Index, a basket of commodities (futures). Yes, the uptrend is sound. yes. Raise your hand if you are afraid of heights.

Who do they love? We happened to be talking about Meta this afternoon at IEX HQ. Yesterday it fell heavily against the market, what’s going on? Mark Zuckerberg in CNBC’s Jim Cramer, Cozy. Meta was destroyed this year and the stock is now (only?) 12 times its expected profit.

Those interested can attribute this afternoon’s modest rally to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. There are no significant indicators today in the S&P 500, EUR/USD and yield, hence the comment. Same message and exact same story a week ago at 75 basis points jumbo height from the Federal Reserve.

Dear IEXers, this is an early recession scenario, just as we saw signs of a potential bottom in tech a couple of weeks ago. We reach our ears and hear from you, but we keep our eyes open for changes and signals. Because if we miss them, you know where to find us and that’s not good either.

Then record wide market in Amsterdam lock. US vs. Europe, see the dying oil and cryptocurrency.

Porcelain 5

Little news but a lot of red on the Damrak. This includes the Galapagos Islands, which is making two acquisitions. It comes to technology, the two companies (!) to be acquired don’t have any products on the shelf yet.

Meanwhile in Germany, the first earnings warning:

Meanwhile in Germany, earnings warning II. Because if anyone gets upset about the Russian oil and gas boycott, it’s Bayer.

Not much advice today, but JP Morgan’s downgrade from ArcelorMittal (to neutral from overweight purchase to €32.50 from €48) definitely lowers it. Click on the image for more details

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Is there anything else? Lots of traffic, but little news. It’s hard to point out.

  • The big exception is Randstad, but the leagues are really bad today
  • Rate the goods in particular – all of them!
  • Unilever, Heineken, RELX, KPN and Wolters Kluwer will in principle help you through bad times for the stock market, albeit not essentially immune to index sales.
  • Just Eat Takeaway is not a one time loss of a day. ArcelorMittal does just that
  • Adyen made a deal with McDonald’s, but despite this, there is no significant upside in the daily chart
  • Another guard, isn’t there better evidence that the market may be changing its nature again, and that CM.com is rising today in AScX? Still in the fall day
  • And the farmers… ForFamers down for over 1,000 trading days…

Grades again: