“While the Chinese military initially focused on the military resources needed to push the Americans away from their region, in the last 10 years they have primarily invested in the things needed to take over an island like Taiwan, or to better secure oil supplies from the Middle East,” says Al Tayer. control of the South China Sea and the East China Sea.

He continues, “The People’s Liberation Army is making good progress in quantity.” “The number of men, missiles and ships… China has the largest fleet in the world.” At the same time, China faces a number of significant technological shortcomings.

“The Chinese are really advanced in missile technology,” Ter says. “They have ballistic missiles that can hit aircraft carriers.” “But they do not yet have the qualities necessary to build first-class jet fighters, for example, and anti-submarine warfare does not exist either. In addition, the only two aircraft carriers that China has are relatively small and not nuclear-powered.” Unlike the massive 11 nuclear-powered types in the United States, Chinese aircraft carriers, one of which relied on Soviet technology, required regular refueling. Especially suitable for adventures away from home.

“Winning without a fight is still preferable in Beijing,” Shelley Rieger said, referring to the rising tensions in China’s backyard, which, in China’s eyes, are also the result of increased U.S. activity in the region. It does not want to describe the increased military supply of arms as “the beginning of the end”. “But it’s a strong signal,” she says of Chinese aviation movements.

Warranties vs

Ultimately, analysts say, much depends on US guarantees to Taiwan. President Biden has in October He said America would act if China attacked Taiwan. Before that, Washington had left it in the dark, believing that the possibility of American aid would be scary enough.

“Both countries are equipped with nuclear weapons,” Altair says of the dangers of confrontation between China and the United States over Taiwan. “Risk is also the scenario in which Beijing thinks: this is probably the best chance we get,” referring to the tilted balance of power, including OkosA military alliance between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Shantou residents don’t seem too worried there yet. In a small textile mill right next to the runway, the sound of spinning wheels above the circular plane triumphs. “What am I afraid of?” Says one of the employees. “Don’t worry, war is not a topic.”