February 4, 2023

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A degree and a half of global warming could be a reality next year

A degree and a half of global warming could be a reality next year

A kangaroo runs past a burning house on Australia’s Lake Conjola during a major bushfire in 2019.Photo by Matthew Abbott/The New York Times

that climate scientists say Now that it’s becoming increasingly likely that the climate will enter a warm “El Niño” phase next year. The earth is currently 1.2 degrees warmer than it was in the 19th century – well before humans began mass greenhouse emissions. According to the projections of the new model, it cannot be ruled out that El Niño will push the world’s climate to the magic limit of 1.5 degrees for the first time in 2024.

It will be a shocking moment for the world. Just eight years ago, the international community pledged to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees. In fact, the UN’s climate panel, the IPCC, predicted only this degree of warming around 2030.

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KNMI climatologist Peter Siegmund agrees: “There is a good chance that there will be a transition from the current La Niña to an El Niño from early spring.” He believes it cannot be said whether that is sufficient to reach 1.5 degrees. “I will look again in early March.”

However, it is one of about thirty climate models that the US think tank Climate Prediction Center is using to oversee the coming year. The temperatures will rise sharply from next summer. In another analysis, of about 25 samples, the scientists see International Climate and Society Research Institute (IRI) It is also a future in which El Niño turns out to be very violent.

El Niño doesn’t just mean bad news. For example, warmer sea waters in South America usually lead to more precipitation in areas of South America and the United States that have experienced drought in recent years. In Australia and Indonesia, El Niño years often cause high temperatures, droughts and, as a result, bushfires and harvest problems.

Northern Hemisphere

In the northern hemisphere, the average temperature has already exceeded one and a half degrees of warming in 2020, The researchers reported a year ago. The Northern Hemisphere has now warmed by an average of 1.6 degrees, because there is more land in the Northern Hemisphere, and the land is warming more than the oceans.

In general, the weather was 2022 warmer by 1.18 degrees than it was before the industrial revolution. This places 2022 as the fifth warmest year on record, behind 2016, 2020, 2019, and 2017, respectively. There was also a climate record: summers in Europe were not measuredly warm.

Nobody actually believed that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees was still achievable. However, at the recent climate summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, the international community still stuck to this goal. some countries I insist on canceling the targetBut the supporters of the limit won the argument.

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