For a few weeks now, the war between Ukraine and Russia has not only been raging on Ukrainian territory: the Ukrainian offensive in the Russian Kursk region has reshuffled the cards. Meanwhile, Russian attacks on Ukraine continue unabated. News hour He spoke with Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior military adviser to President Zelensky. He believes that the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk could bring about political change in Russia.

“The Russians are now realizing what war means. For two years it was fine: you know that people are being killed somewhere, but it doesn’t bother you. Now the problems are very close, and this puts pressure on politics.”

A week after the attack, Podolyak was already writing what he had written. X “Ukraine has no interest in occupying Russian territory. But when we talk about possible negotiations, we have to bring Russia to the table on our own terms.”

In conversation with News hour Podolyak explains that political pressure on Russia should come primarily from the Russian people. Through the counterattack, Ukraine is trying to influence public opinion in Russia. “The war is moving to Russian territory. Then there will be mass protests and this will lead to political change in Russia. This is the only way to a just end to this war,” he added.

About 20,000 people from the Kursk region are now sheltered in Moscow. Most Muscovites do not want to say anything about the Ukrainian offensive, but few dare to speak out:

Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine now seem further along than they were before the Ukrainian offensive, says Bob Dean, an Eastern Europe expert at the Clingendael Institute. “The Ukrainians’ overriding goal this year has been to avoid taking too many casualties and having to sign a humiliating deal on Russian terms. The attack on Russian territory should also be seen in that light. It’s an attempt to initiate a withdrawal.”

According to Dean, Putin is now saying what Zelensky has been saying since the beginning of the war: We cannot talk to a country that is attacking us. “This is just rhetoric. The basic conditions remain the same: real negotiations will only happen when both sides realize that there is not much left to be gained on the battlefield.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine came under a massive Russian attack yesterday, likely in retaliation for the Ukrainian offensive. Russia fired more than 200 missiles and drones at targets across the country. The Ukrainian air force described it as the largest airstrike since the invasion began in February 2022.

Zelenskyy today reiterated his call to allow the West to use Western weapons on Russian territory. “The United States, the United Kingdom, France and other partners have the ability to help us stop this terror,” he added. “Russia is a primitive country. It is very backward technologically, strategically and tactically. This should make our allies understand that the ban on waging war on Russian territory must be lifted,” Podolyak added.

Ukraine’s Western allies have so far been reluctant to supply Ukraine with missiles that could hit targets deep inside Russia because of fears of further escalation. Eastern Europe expert Dean: “Ukraine wants to show the West that these red lines that Putin keeps bringing up are not deep red. They are saying: Give us the opportunity to use these weapons against Russia.”

Dean describes Podolyak’s hopes for political change in Russia as “wishful thinking.” “This is one of those moments where you see the Kremlin struggling to keep the narrative under control. But it’s just ‘hard.’ I don’t think it threatens Putin’s position.”

In the short term, Dean expects the fighting to intensify. “Ukraine will respond to Russia’s attacks and there may be another Russian response,” he said. “I also think the Russians will continue to make territorial gains in the Donbas. And then both sides will look to the U.S. presidential election as a potential game-changer.”