No chip is on investment experts’ buy list for next month, according to Stock market survey Written by Corny van Zijl from Cardano. Ahold Delhaize and Adyen are favorites. The professionals also seem to be looking very gloomy this month.

In a poll last month, investment experts showed themselves pessimistic for the first time in a long time. Nearly 40% expected the AEX to decline and only a few expected it to continue rising. It later became clear that this gloom was unjustified. The AEX rose sharply by almost 3%.

This made it a good above average month for the stock market. Historically, May is a bad month:

We have not taken profits into account yet. If we add that, the May yield is still 0.8% higher. Below you can see the difference between a “regular” AEX index and a reinvestment index, where dividends are reinvested:

Only 15% of experts expect the AEX to rise further in June

The gloom continues into June. A large number of investment experts believe that prices have far exceeded underlying earnings. Almost half of the professionals expect the fun to end and the AEX to decline. Just under 15% believe that the AEX will continue its upward trend.

These are the forecasts for June:

• 14.8% are optimistic (down from 21.7% last month)
• 37.0% are neutral (compared to 40.0% in April)
• 48.1% are pessimistic (compared to 38.3% last time)
• Balance: -33.3% (was -16.7%)

Private investors appear considerably more optimistic

This means that experts are once again more pessimistic than the 1,089 private investors who participated in the latest measurement of national investor confidence by IEX. Here, at least 39.3% expect the AEX to rise more than 2% this month. Only 10.9% expected a decline.

The sentiment index (the sum of all questions from the survey) was slightly lower than a month ago. But with the index reading 54.9 points, the mood remained optimistic (the border between optimism and pessimism is 50 points).

Only 22% of investment professionals believe the AEX will rise further this year

Investment experts are strongly divided on how the AEX will perform in the rest of the year. Half takes into account the net sideways trend. 22% believe that the index will end the fiscal year higher than now, and a similar percentage expects a decline.

Doubt may arise because the AEX index has already seen a significant journey. The US presidential elections are also on the agenda. “Not everyone is confident that this will go well,” Van Zijl wrote. “This could have ramifications for the stock market.”

These are experts’ expectations for the next six months:

• 22.2% are optimistic (down from 25.0% last month).
• 51.9% are neutral (compared to 46.7% in March)
• 25.9% are pessimistic (28.3%)
• Balance: -3.7% (was -3.3%)

Private investors look brighter again. Nearly two-thirds of IEX readers think the AEX will rise further this year, and only 15.2% expect a decline.

Stock Options May: ASMI and Besi hit the rocks

A permanent part of a stock market survey is an overview of the stocks most and least favored by stock market experts: high-flying stocks and volatile stocks. How well did participants perform in the previous survey?

Average, as it turns out. Two stocks on the buy list live up to expectations: ASML and Adyen. But Shell, which also received information, was one of the few companies whose shares in the AEX index fell in May. ASMI and Besi were also spoiler sports. Stock market experts warned against intervention, but they became the best-performing stocks on the stock exchange.

May toppers	efficiency	Fins maybe	efficiency
ASML	+7.3%	Phillips	-0.6%
Aden	+4.8%	IMCD	-0.9%
coincidence	-1.6%	ASMI	+10%
DSM Firmenich	+1.8%	Bessie	+12.3%

ASMI was on the IEX readers buy list and it went well. But there we also see some errors. For example, the NN group did not live up to its preferred role, and Randstad and – yes – Besi subsequently had no say in the dud list.

June Stock Picks: Ahold Delhaize is a favorite

Finally, options for June. Which stocks have the best cards according to investment professionals and which should we avoid?

We see a noticeable shift in the purchase list: chippers are completely absent. Instead, the somewhat defensive Ahold Delhaize is on top. This does not mean that technology stocks have fallen out of favor, because in second and third places we find Adyen and Prosus, which have had the wind in their sails in recent months thanks to their participation Tencent. KPN and Shell complete the list.

Philips is back on the cusp of failure, but with much less conviction than last month. According to investment professionals, it is also best to avoid PC. The choice of ING and Wolters Kluwer is new and has shown good positives in May.

June toppers	balance	Fins June	balance
Ahold Delhaize	6	Phillips	-6
Aden	5	Bessie	-5
Brossus	4	a job	-3
KPN	3	Wolters Kluwer	-3
coincidence	3

*The balance represents the number of positive answers minus the number of negative answers.

ASML is advised by private investors

Here too, investment professionals and private investors have different opinions. Although ASML has disappeared from the list of favorites among professionals, the shredder still proudly holds the top spot among IEX readers. Private investors are also excited about PCI, while experts have put this stake on the scary right list. Private investors also have high expectations for Aegon and NN Group, two companies missing from experts’ shopping list.

Both groups agree that Philips and Wolters Kluwer need to be careful. But other names differ. This makes it even more exciting to find out who is right.

Opinions are divided about the rise of artificial intelligence

Van Zijl submitted an additional question to the experts. I was curious as to whether they expect AI to continue to rise or whether we have almost passed the biggest increase. These were the answer options.

artificial intelligencetree:

1. It goes further
2. He is well aware of future developments
3. He’s already on top

Opinions appear to be sharply divided. 32% expect there is more to come, 34% believe the peak is now behind us, and the same percentage believe future developments have been priced correctly.

Also read what fellow investors are saying in the IEX Poll: Investors love this stock again