In fact, there is a stalemate in the war in Ukraine, De Wik believes. This is reinforced by new fortifications – reinforcements of defense lines. “I believe this is Ukraine’s last attempt to prevent the takeover of Donbass.”
“Ukraine’s last attempt to prevent the seizure of Donbass”
The relatively successful Ukrainian offensive in the Kherson region is primarily the result of a failure of command and control among Russia’s Geber forces. A new general should have put things in order, but Russian forces have not been able to launch coordinated artillery fire, and the logistics are not sound either, says Rob de Wieck of the Hague Center for Strategic Studies (HCSS). “There are more and more reports of soldiers who no longer feel like it because they are facing certain death.”
“I think the fact that we are having these conversations, including with Lavrov, is meaningful.”
According to Russian bloggers, strikes among the military have become a really big problem. According to de Wijk, Ukraine’s relative success is mainly due to Russia’s incompetence. “They all seem to be deploying competent men to control Donbas.” Historian Arend-Jan Böckstein adds that both sides choose a defensive strategy because the attack will not succeed. “This is what happens.”
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In fact, there is a dead end, says De Wieck. This is reinforced with new ones Fortifications. I think this is Ukraine’s last attempt to prevent the takeover of Donbass. Avdiyevka will probably just be taken. At the diplomatic level, the first talks about a ceasefire or peace settlement have already taken place, although the Russian representation immediately distanced itself from this. “But I think the fact that we are having those conversations, including with Lavrov, is meaningful.”
From stalemate to talks
The current stalemate provides room for talks to finally take place, Böckestijn says. The OSCE has already met This could be a precursor to constructive negotiations. “It is always important to speak up. Bulgaria closed its airspace to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, but he had to get there, otherwise the OSCE would have been killed. So I appeal to international bodies to talk to each other at all.
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Meanwhile, a poll conducted by the independent Russian polling agency Chronicles showed a change in thinking about the war. De Wijk has absorbed the results well. “The number of people who fully support the war has decreased dramatically, as has the number of people who want to continue. The number of people who want Russian forces to withdraw has reached 50%, which is very few. Only 12% of Russians want the army to continue fighting until Achieving all goals.