The Dutch Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) wrote in an unsolicited advice to the Cabinet that it is highly doubtful whether the government planning to buy farmers will get the expected result. The Planning Office considered the lessons of the past because the Cabinet allocated an unprecedented amount of money to buy farmers, and it expects quick results.

According to the coalition agreement, the Council of Ministers wants to allocate 7.4 billion euros to close livestock farms, in order to significantly reduce asphyxiation emissions by 2030. The Planning Office says the purchase could be a good way to improve nature, but expectations are now too high. Disappointing results and wasted money lurk if the government doesn’t change its plans, the bureau warns.

Advice comes at a hot time. On Wednesday, Johan Remix will announce how he thinks nitrogen policy should continue. He has toured farmers, nature organizations, government organizations, and industry, with the goal of bringing the two together.

PBL notes that in the past it was older farmers who had no successors who were interested in mass purchase schemes. PBL expects similar candidates for new schemes, but “that pond is always limited in size,” the bureau wrote. In addition, smoking cessation becomes less attractive to modern companies afterwards; After all, they lose competitors.

In the past, ranchers often chose the mass purchase arrangement due to the poor economic situation. PBL writes that there are now subsidies for farmers who want to innovate, which makes continuing to operate as a farmer more attractive.

However, according to the agency, Dutch farmers are likely to consider stopping due to the latest resolution That from next year they will be allowed to spread less manure on their land. In addition, there are plans to tighten emissions requirements from stables by 2025.

The purchase would be more effective, according to the planning office, if it was used in specific areas, rather than random locations. For example, on farms adjacent to nature reserves. The agency also notes that the schemes are particularly attractive if there are also environmental regulations, such as prohibiting the sale of farms adjacent to nature reserves.

The agency doesn’t expect much from a forced takeover. The government is considering this treatment if voluntary quitting is not sufficient. The planning office says there is little experience with forced procurement and that this can lead to lengthy legal proceedings with uncertain outcomes. So it is doubtful whether this will have an effect before 2030.

Because of the high expectations of plans, pressure on policy implementation can become high, according to the PBL. According to the agency, the risk of undirected spending arises. According to the PBL, if everything does not go according to plan, it should not be concluded too quickly that the policy has failed, because expectations may have simply been too high.