Eight weeks before the election, Bellingweisser formed three little-differentiated parties: the VVD, Peter Omtzigt’s National Security Council Party, and the GroenLinks-PvdA. Poll index is a weighted average of opinion polls Ipsos/EenVandaag And Input and output research.

Shortly after its founding, the NSC was Bellingweisser’s largest party with 26 to 32 seats, but has declined somewhat since then, now standing at 23 to 27. The VVD got 25 to 29, compared to 22 to 27 in The previous three parties. -Peilingwijzer last week. Just like last time, GroenLinks-PvdA has 22-26 seats.

Tom Loewers, founder of the Billingsweiser Party, points out that the party does not say much about which party will become the largest. “It’s clearly a snapshot. The majority of voters don’t know yet what they’re going to vote for.”

Research agencies value GroenLinks-PvdA support differently. At Ipsos/EenVandaag the group gets 21 seats, well behind VVD and NSC, but at I&O Research it is one of the front-runners with 29 seats. “This often results in fairly comparable numbers, but now at GroenLinks-PvdA we see a significant difference,” explains Louwerse.

Researcher Peter Kahn of I&O Research doesn’t think the difference is that big. According to him, he is on the sidelines and it cannot be denied that the struggle for first place is currently taking place between three parties.

Sjoerd van Heck of Ipsos/EenVandaag also qualifies the difference between the two polls. “If you convert it to percentages, GroenLinks-PvdA gets 13 percent for us and 18 percent for I&O. This is within the margin of error or not. The difference also reflects uncertainty among many voters.” Van Heck sticks to the conclusion that the VVD and the NSC are currently competing for the leadership position, but he certainly does not rule out that GroenLinks-PvdA will eventually become the largest party.

Louwerse says it’s striking that the VVD doesn’t seem bothered by Omtzigt. “The VVD has to rely (reasonably) on satisfied right-wing voters, while the NSC and BBB are fishing in the same pond, where dissatisfied center and center-right voters are.” The BBB is the fifth party in Peilingwijzer with 11-15 seats, and therefore has half the number of seats it had at the end of June, when the BBB was still as large as the VVD.

Research by I&O Research shows that VVD and GroenLinks-PvdA voters rely mainly on their party’s positions, while NSC voters are mainly attracted to party leader Umtsigt. He is by far the most respected politician. The truth is that voters are running away from him now because he does not yet have an election manifesto, so voters do not know exactly what he stands for.

Party leader Timmermans is highly regarded by his supporters, receiving a rating of 8.0, but is not very popular among other voters, giving him a rating of 4.8. The leader of the VVD, Jeselgoz, raised less resistance. It received a 6.2, while some voters who recently switched to VVD cited it as an incentive for I&O research.

In the latest polling guide, the Freedom Party’s rise is also striking. The number of seats for Geert Wilders’ party ranges from 12 to 16 to 15 to 19 seats. Voters who switched to the FDP cite I&O research as the reason why the FDP has not been excluded by the party and therefore has a chance at government participation.

According to Peter Kahn, it is also certainly a matter of the more moderate tone Wilders seems to be taking. “You can also see this in the growing appreciation for Wilders. He has gradually become elegant in the eyes of voters, unlike Baudet and Van Haga, for example.”

The Party for the Animals had limited problems with Bellingweiser’s internal vicissitudes. The party, which Esther Uehand does not want to lead at the moment, has 7 to 9 seats (was 7 to 10). According to Kahn, this is because the internal conflict within the party was quickly resolved and voters “stand behind Owehand as one woman – because most PVDD voters are women.” Kahn expects this decline to continue if Uwehand continues to refuse to take the position of party leader.

The two government parties, D66 and CDA, appear to be headed for a huge loss. D66, which still has 24 seats in the House of Representatives, is on 5 to 9 seats (was 6-10), and CDA is on 4 to 6 (was 2-6). The appointment of Henri Bontenball as party leader has not led to radical change so far. The fourth ruling party, the Christian Union, won 4 to 6 seats.

Moreover, the SP is also in bad condition with 4-6 seats (was 3-5). Other parties that seem almost certain to win seats are Forum for Democracy (3-5), Volt (2-4), JA21 and Dink (both 1-3). This brings the number of parties in the House of Representatives to 15.