November 27, 2022

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It's the cycle, dummy, is het motto vandaag met Besi, Akzo en de rest

It’s the course, you idiot, that’s the catchphrase today with Bessie, Akzo and the rest

It’s the economic cycle, you idiot!

The AEX is -0.2% and that probably isn’t too bad considering interest rates and the upcoming third quarter. Besi and AkzoNobel in particular stress that the economy is making water here and there, as was a slew of American money last night.

  • All European futures contracts open around zero
  • The US too, with the exception of the mini-NASDAQ 100, which runs -0.4%.
  • In Asia, China is flat, but the rest is up to 1 percent lower. However, the Hang Seng Index is down 1.7%. So more about this, because it’s not good there
  • Volatility (CBOE VIX Index) is +0.9% at 30.8
  • The dollar fell 0.1 percent to 0.9785. The yen is at its lowest level since 1990
  • Gold is down 0.2%, Oil is up +1.3%, and the cryptocurrency is down a few tenths

Interest rates again, my gosh – they haven’t finished their coffee yet – they’re really going up Boquito, well, how much room is there for stocks as long as interest rates keep going up?

the master. The market can, of course, decide at any moment that the fun is over and just cancel the wonderful correlation between stocks and interest rates. It’s not happening at the moment, look here again AEX in orange and our 10 years in purple.

By the way we have no complaints here in Amsterdam. For example, in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng fell to its lowest level since… the credit crunch.


The most important things first
, Besi saw Q3s with a double dip in sales and profits and the company expects fourth-quarter sales to decline by 15-25%. So cycle and market conditions, anyone who thinks shredders are no longer cyclical has their homework. This is the dreary Match ReportHow much is this?

Our analyst Paul Weeteling spoke to me about this and you can expect a review from him soon.

Besi clean results in light of a much lower turnover level. The order quantity is very weak. Obviously, the down cycle isn’t in the third quarter yet.

With the RELX update, we quickly finished: fine finea slight increase in the overview.

And what if the session bites! AkzoNobel had already warned about earnings, but is now withdrawing its forecasts for 2022 and 2023 in the third quarter. Again, how much does this cost?

You may need to start paying close attention to your journals. I’m so surprised by that Cyclic ArcelorMittal has held. Both DSM and IMCD are expensive.

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Nedap also reports Q3s (over here), addresses known issues, but maintains a forward-looking outlook. Sligro is also through Q3s and is not releasing an outlook (over here) Finally Kapka also mentions (over here).

Last night, Tesla fell 6.3% after trading (after the initial rally) in the third quarter. The profit wasn’t too bad, the turnover was disappointing and the company is assuming a recession, which it doesn’t think it will bother with. These are briefly the CNBC headlines, ABM FN-Dow Jones Report I read here.

Tesla posted $1.05 in adjusted earnings per share, beating expectations of 99 cents, on revenue of $21.45 billion, lower than the expected $21.96 billion.

Net income (GAAP) was $3.33 billion, more than double from a year ago, while auto revenue was up 55% from the prior-year quarter.

The company warned of a bottleneck in transportation capacity to deliver new cars in the final weeks of the quarter, and said it was “moving to a smoother delivery pace.”

From the conference call:

On Tesla’s third-quarter earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said the company is not cutting production “in any meaningful way, slack or stagnate.”

“We stick to the metal whether it’s raining or sunny,” Musk said.

Regarding Musk’s proposed $44 billion takeover of Twitter, he said the company “has been a bit weak for a long time but has incredible potential.”

These Americans also have numbers:

Alcohol -8.0%
IBM + 2.9%
PPG -1.7%

Then this and certainly there are among us who do better. Keep in mind that these pension funds are not just in stocks, but also bonds and you know what you’re going through this year. The worst ever.

News, tips and short agenda

The most important ABM Financial news since the Amsterdam closed yesterday.

  • 08:17 The AEX may have started slightly lower
  • 08:07 Kapka sees growth slowing down a bit
  • 08:00 Sligro sees revenue surge
  • 07:57 Wereld successfully refinanced
  • 07:49 AkzoNobel launches goal for 2023
  • 07:40 Bessie warns of weak market conditions
  • 07:33 Japanese exports continue to grow
  • 07:24 Bessie warns of weak market conditions
  • 07:24 Nedap increased sales in the third quarter
  • 06:55 Dutch investment rises again
  • 06:54 European stocks opened lower
  • 06:53 Dutch consumption also rose in September
  • 06:52 Dutch consumer confidence stabilizes
  • 06:47 Unemployment is stabilizing
  • 06:37 Exhibition agenda: Dutch companies
  • 06:37 Exhibition Agenda: Foreign Funds
  • 06:37 Stock Exchange Agenda: Macroeconomics
  • October 19 PPG records lower profits
  • October 19, IBM exceeds expectations
  • October 19 Alcoa records the loss
  • October 19, Tesla did not achieve record profits
  • October 19 stock update: AEX on Wall Street
  • October 19 WDP succeeded in raising 300 million
  • On October 19, Wall Street closed lower
  • October 19 Scottish order for Envipco
  • On October 19, the price of oil closed higher
  • October 19 US Economic Activity Grows Modestly – Beige Book
  • On October 19, Wall Street heads for a lower close
  • October 19 Ordina withdraws its shares
  • October 19 European stocks closed lower
  • Oct 19 AEX Closes Higher Thanks to Strong ASML
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AFM reports this shorts:

The calendar is full of shock and anticipation for Snape, the Philadelphia Fed Index and the US Housing Number:

07:00 AkzoNobel – Third Quarter Numbers
07:00 Bessa – Third Quarter Numbers
07:30 Sligro – Third Quarter Numbers
08:00 CAPCA – Trading Update
08:00 Relx – Third Quarter Numbers
18:00 NIDAP – Third Quarter Numbers

13:00 AT&T – US Q3 numbers
13:00 ManpowerGroup – Third Quarter Numbers (US)
13:00 Philip Morris – US Q3 numbers
22:00 Snapshot – Q3 numbers (US)

00:50 Trade Balance – September (Japan)
06:30 Consumer Confidence – October (Netherlands)
06:30 Household Consumption – August (NL)
06:30 Investments – August (NL)
06:30 Unemployment Rate – September (NL)
08:00 Producer Awards – September (Germany)
14:30 Support Requests – Weekly (US)
14:30 Philadelphia Fed Index – October (US)
16:00 Existing Home Sales – September (US)
16:00 Leading Indicators – September (USA)

That’s Snap, which got horribly wet twice earlier this year on deeply disappointing numbers and forecasts. Do you still get the picture?

then this

Last night was frugal:

Oh yeah, Fed Beige’s book:

Surprise?

The great miracle of tough times today? Tight job market.

Also applies to consumption!

Now Unilever still:

it really hurts?

Not only in China, not only in Bessi, but all over the world is malaise except for a town in Brabant?

It’s bad all over:

Who do we have here?

Enjoy and good luck today.

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