It’s the economic cycle, you idiot!

The AEX is -0.2% and that probably isn’t too bad considering interest rates and the upcoming third quarter. Besi and AkzoNobel in particular stress that the economy is making water here and there, as was a slew of American money last night.

• All European futures contracts open around zero
• The US too, with the exception of the mini-NASDAQ 100, which runs -0.4%.
• In Asia, China is flat, but the rest is up to 1 percent lower. However, the Hang Seng Index is down 1.7%. So more about this, because it’s not good there
• Volatility (CBOE VIX Index) is +0.9% at 30.8
• The dollar fell 0.1 percent to 0.9785. The yen is at its lowest level since 1990
• Gold is down 0.2%, Oil is up +1.3%, and the cryptocurrency is down a few tenths

Interest rates again, my gosh – they haven’t finished their coffee yet – they’re really going up Boquito, well, how much room is there for stocks as long as interest rates keep going up?

the master. The market can, of course, decide at any moment that the fun is over and just cancel the wonderful correlation between stocks and interest rates. It’s not happening at the moment, look here again AEX in orange and our 10 years in purple.

By the way we have no complaints here in Amsterdam. For example, in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng fell to its lowest level since… the credit crunch.

The most important things first, Besi saw Q3s with a double dip in sales and profits and the company expects fourth-quarter sales to decline by 15-25%. So cycle and market conditions, anyone who thinks shredders are no longer cyclical has their homework. This is the dreary Match ReportHow much is this?

Our analyst Paul Weeteling spoke to me about this and you can expect a review from him soon.

Besi clean results in light of a much lower turnover level. The order quantity is very weak. Obviously, the down cycle isn’t in the third quarter yet.

With the RELX update, we quickly finished: fine finea slight increase in the overview.

And what if the session bites! AkzoNobel had already warned about earnings, but is now withdrawing its forecasts for 2022 and 2023 in the third quarter. Again, how much does this cost?

You may need to start paying close attention to your journals. I’m so surprised by that Cyclic ArcelorMittal has held. Both DSM and IMCD are expensive.

Nedap also reports Q3s (over here), addresses known issues, but maintains a forward-looking outlook. Sligro is also through Q3s and is not releasing an outlook (over here) Finally Kapka also mentions (over here).

Last night, Tesla fell 6.3% after trading (after the initial rally) in the third quarter. The profit wasn’t too bad, the turnover was disappointing and the company is assuming a recession, which it doesn’t think it will bother with. These are briefly the CNBC headlines, ABM FN-Dow Jones Report I read here.

Tesla posted $1.05 in adjusted earnings per share, beating expectations of 99 cents, on revenue of $21.45 billion, lower than the expected $21.96 billion.

Net income (GAAP) was $3.33 billion, more than double from a year ago, while auto revenue was up 55% from the prior-year quarter.

The company warned of a bottleneck in transportation capacity to deliver new cars in the final weeks of the quarter, and said it was “moving to a smoother delivery pace.”

Tesla’s Earnings Came Out – Here Are the Numbers https://t.co/1DBFtwYiMp

– CNBC October 19, 2022

From the conference call:

On Tesla’s third-quarter earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said the company is not cutting production “in any meaningful way, slack or stagnate.”

“We stick to the metal whether it’s raining or sunny,” Musk said.

Regarding Musk’s proposed $44 billion takeover of Twitter, he said the company “has been a bit weak for a long time but has incredible potential.”

Elon Musk says Tesla is ‘pedaling to metal’ even as a potential recession looms https://t.co/kNNOJHiMs4

– CNBC October 19, 2022

These Americans also have numbers:

Alcohol -8.0%
IBM + 2.9%
PPG -1.7%

Then this and certainly there are among us who do better. Keep in mind that these pension funds are not just in stocks, but also bonds and you know what you’re going through this year. The worst ever.

How are you this year?#ABP -16.6%#PFZW And the #PME: more than 20% #PMT -28%

Well, how could that be? Ah, that’s why…

PFZW Chairman Joanne Kellermann described the situation in the financial markets as “extremely bad”. # AX #pension fundshttps://t.co/tm4g0LGbAC

– Arend Jan Kamp (@ArendJanKamp) October 20 2022

News, tips and short agenda

The most important ABM Financial news since the Amsterdam closed yesterday.

• 08:17 The AEX may have started slightly lower
• 08:07 Kapka sees growth slowing down a bit
• 08:00 Sligro sees revenue surge
• 07:57 Wereld successfully refinanced
• 07:49 AkzoNobel launches goal for 2023
• 07:40 Bessie warns of weak market conditions
• 07:33 Japanese exports continue to grow
• 07:24 Bessie warns of weak market conditions
• 07:24 Nedap increased sales in the third quarter
• 06:55 Dutch investment rises again
• 06:54 European stocks opened lower
• 06:53 Dutch consumption also rose in September
• 06:52 Dutch consumer confidence stabilizes
• 06:47 Unemployment is stabilizing
• 06:37 Exhibition agenda: Dutch companies
• 06:37 Exhibition Agenda: Foreign Funds
• 06:37 Stock Exchange Agenda: Macroeconomics
• October 19 PPG records lower profits
• October 19, IBM exceeds expectations
• October 19 Alcoa records the loss
• October 19, Tesla did not achieve record profits
• October 19 stock update: AEX on Wall Street
• October 19 WDP succeeded in raising 300 million
• On October 19, Wall Street closed lower
• October 19 Scottish order for Envipco
• On October 19, the price of oil closed higher
• October 19 US Economic Activity Grows Modestly – Beige Book
• On October 19, Wall Street heads for a lower close
• October 19 Ordina withdraws its shares
• October 19 European stocks closed lower
• Oct 19 AEX Closes Higher Thanks to Strong ASML

AFM reports this shorts:

The calendar is full of shock and anticipation for Snape, the Philadelphia Fed Index and the US Housing Number:

07:00 AkzoNobel – Third Quarter Numbers
07:00 Bessa – Third Quarter Numbers
07:30 Sligro – Third Quarter Numbers
08:00 CAPCA – Trading Update
08:00 Relx – Third Quarter Numbers
18:00 NIDAP – Third Quarter Numbers

13:00 AT&T – US Q3 numbers
13:00 ManpowerGroup – Third Quarter Numbers (US)
13:00 Philip Morris – US Q3 numbers
22:00 Snapshot – Q3 numbers (US)

00:50 Trade Balance – September (Japan)
06:30 Consumer Confidence – October (Netherlands)
06:30 Household Consumption – August (NL)
06:30 Investments – August (NL)
06:30 Unemployment Rate – September (NL)
08:00 Producer Awards – September (Germany)
14:30 Support Requests – Weekly (US)
14:30 Philadelphia Fed Index – October (US)
16:00 Existing Home Sales – September (US)
16:00 Leading Indicators – September (USA)

That’s Snap, which got horribly wet twice earlier this year on deeply disappointing numbers and forecasts. Do you still get the picture?

then this

Last night was frugal:

WATCH: US stocks snapped a two-day streak of gains as weaker Abbott Laboratories shares and higher Treasury yields drained momentum from the current earnings season and outpaced a rally in Netflix shares. https://t.co/4Isp8orDCN pic.twitter.com/tDLYsb7X2i

Reuters Business (ReutersBiz) October 20 2022

Oh yeah, Fed Beige’s book:

The Federal Reserve says the US economy grew “modestly” through early October, but performance was mixed in different parts of the country, with activity slowing in two places. https://t.co/irTNxnQcIf

– Bloomberg Markets October 20 2022

Surprise?

IBM reported better-than-expected sales and reiterated its cash flow forecast in a sign that demand for software, mainframes, and hybrid cloud services remains flat. https://t.co/QH48Muthhb

– Bloomberg Markets October 19, 2022

The great miracle of tough times today? Tight job market.

In September, it was 382 thousand people #unemployed; That’s 3.8 percent of the working population, the same as in August. After months of declines, the number of unemployment benefits rose slightly.https://t.co/DGm0BvRkPP pic.twitter.com/90d4mqehEF

– CBS (statisticscbs) October 20 2022

Also applies to consumption!

In August 2022 you have # houses 4.1 per cent more, for # Price is changing Corrected, than in August 2021. More in services, less in goods.https://t.co/WL5H4sUIaH pic.twitter.com/DXwOsGpMmu

– CBS (statisticscbs) October 20 2022

Now Unilever still:

Nestlé reported its strongest sales growth in nine months in 14 years. Likewise, Procter & Gamble outperformed its quarterly sales and earnings estimates. Consumer companies maintain double-digit margins as people have to pay more for everyday products https://t.co/QJD9mYUlh6 pic.twitter.com/4fSJQq3Ox0

Reuters Business (ReutersBiz) October 20 2022

it really hurts?

China has held a series of emergency meetings over the past week with leading semiconductor companies, seeking to assess the damage from the Biden administration’s sweeping chip restrictions and pledging support for the vital sector. https://t.co/wmTnIXQkry

– Bloomberg Markets October 20 2022

Not only in China, not only in Bessi, but all over the world is malaise except for a town in Brabant?

The Biden administration’s trade restrictions on China are wreaking havoc on the chip equipment industry, but a pair of company forecasts show the pain won’t spread evenly https://t.co/nuIuJSzxrV

– Bloomberg Markets October 20 2022

It’s bad all over:

Goldman Sachs expects emerging equity markets to see further profit cuts even as the region’s valuations decline and the US leads in the cuts to earnings estimates. https://t.co/qDifWwlQoF

– Bloomberg Markets October 20 2022

Who do we have here?

Watch: Amazon founder Jeff Bezos has joined a growing list of business leaders who have warned people about the state of the US economy. Bezos tweeted ‘The odds in this economy are telling you to clear the hatches’ pic.twitter.com/7XMpOUKhbG

Reuters Business (ReutersBiz) October 20 2022

Enjoy and good luck today.