The church bell begins to ring in a square in the Hazmieh area. Next to a statue of Pope John Paul II, a baby girl takes her first steps. On a Sunday like many in this Christian suburb of the Lebanese capital, Beirut, but this is not how Joumana Haber (52 years old) feels. The owner of a small bakery in the church square is frightened. She’s even more afraid than she was during the last war between her country and Israel in 2006. When war broke out in Gaza last fall, she immediately started stocking up on groceries.

Last Tuesday, her city was hit by an Israeli air strike for the first time in seventeen years. The target, a senior Hamas leader, was chosen very carefully, but who says it will stop there? “Israel has also bombed Christian neighborhoods in Gaza,” says Haber. I’ve seen pictures of children with limbs torn off. Unbearable. They don’t spare anyone.”

Tensions between the two neighboring countries have not been this high in years, and more and more observers are anticipating a new Israeli invasion of Lebanon – the fourth in half a century. This weekend, Israeli warplanes carried out reconnaissance flights over a number of Lebanese cities. In a calculated response to the killing of Hamas leader Al-Arouri, the Hezbollah armed movement (Hamas ally) fired more than sixty missiles towards the Israeli Meron Air Base on Saturday morning. There will be no casualties.

Large-scale attack

according to sources Subordinate Washington Post American diplomats expect that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will launch a large-scale attack on Lebanon in an attempt to boost his popularity, which has declined at home. Shortly after October 7, Israel was also on the verge of doing so, according to the newspaper, but President Biden managed to change Netanyahu’s mind. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant stressed on Friday that a diplomatic solution was preferable, “but we are approaching the point where the hourglass turns.”

Not everyone in Lebanon is as afraid as Baker Khabar. The reaction of many of them was surprisingly curt, their skin thickened after years of disasters (hyperinflation, a devastating port explosion). “It may seem insensitive, but the air strike this week was three kilometers away,” smiles 41-year-old Pastor Jad (“no surname”) between two church services. In other words: not in his neighborhood. That’s all that matters.

He also feels a great distance from the people of Gaza, the priest says, and this has to do with history. The Palestinians have always been a divisive issue in Lebanese history. One feels solidarity, the other sees them as unwanted visitors. In the early 1970s, Yasser Arafat moved the PLO’s headquarters to Beirut, leading to two Israeli invasions. Lebanon comfort In a bloody civil war (1975-1990), the Palestine Liberation Organization was one of the warring parties. “If you witnessed the killing of your relatives at the hands of the PLO, it is difficult to feel sympathy for the Palestinians now,” Jad says in a low voice.

sovereignty

More important is the division over the Shiite Hezbollah, which, in addition to its armed branch, has a faction in parliament. The movement is proud to be the true defender of Lebanese sovereignty, but on whose behalf is it doing so? And it’s not on our behalf that some Christians (about 30 percent of the population) complain.

They view Hezbollah as undermining the state, in part because the organization receives money and weapons from Iran and deals mercilessly with critics. They believe that the national army should defend the country. This would make sense if it weren’t for the practicality of the military busty (Salaries are paid by the United States and Qatar.) It does not come close to Hezbollah in terms of strength. Reverend Gad nodded. “They won’t be able to get very far with their M16s and Kalashnikovs.”

In short, this is the Lebanese paradox: decisions on war and peace must be made by the central authority, but this is not the case. Due to political differences, the country has been without a president for fourteen months, and the interim prime minister is considered toothless. Ministers To give They openly admit that they have no influence. Hezbollah has the freedom to do so. Sarah Harmoush (36 years old), a local resident, says: “I am not a fan of them, but I feel relieved that they are not pushing towards a big war.”

Christian battalions

Other Lebanese are less tolerant. Inside the city, a group of retirees gather on the street to play a weekly game of backgammon. Joe Haddad (60 years old), a veteran of the extreme right-wing Christian brigades, says lightly that he does not trust Hezbollah. He is tired of Iranian influence in the region. Look at Iraq, Syria and Yemen: every country in which the Iranians interfere will be destroyed.

Haddad raises his jacket, a pistol clipped behind his belt. Decades ago, when he wasn’t limping, he shot Arafat’s Palestine Liberation Organization men as a sniper. This had nothing to do with Lebanese sovereignty, but rather its militias were in one of them Beast Covenant With the southern neighbors. Smiling: Israel is our friend.

Pragmatism was never old-fashioned in Lebanon. Haddad was allowed to cross the border into the Israeli city of Nahariya for military training. He says that a new gentlemen’s agreement is not possible today. Israel no longer needs us. They are now dealing with bigger players like Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

As the backgammon table closed, Haddad was quick to say that he was fully prepared to fight for the country in his old age, provided that Hezbollah leaves the initiative to the army. Many citizens would love to repeat this, but they also know that it is a distant dream, and there is no chance of success at the moment. Their fate is in the hands of Hezbollah. In these turbulent times, this is the only certainty.