Earlier, America won. In January 2022, the panel ruled that Canada had not done enough to open the market to US imports. Americans were allowed up to a 3.5% share of the Canadian dairy market. For this purpose, they were allocated tariff quotas for various types of dairy products.

However, the Americans considered this to be too slow and believed that there should be greater access to the Canadian milk market even without tariff quotas. Canada sees it differently and says Americans are too impatient. The security is that if they fill all their payment quotas first, there will be room to re-evaluate contracts over time. The panel at the USMCA agrees to the United States-Mexico-Canada Treaty.

It is vital that Canada keeps its own, highly regulated dairy market afloat and provides its own farmers with a relatively guaranteed livelihood. It would be uncertain if the country were to offer completely free access to much cheaper US milk production.

For now, the Trudeau government in Ottawa sees the panel’s ruling as a major victory, but the question remains how long it can maintain the safety of its own dairies and milk production.