Bitcoin (BTC) briefly fell to $28,700 on Monday, but quickly recovered back above $29,000. Bitcoin started a sharp rally yesterday afternoon, which led to a rally just above $30,200 overnight. Bitcoin then fell to $29,750 and is currently looking for support here.
Bitcoin briefly fell to $29,600, but rose to $29,796 on Binance and $27,126 on Bitvavo at the time of writing. This means that the bitcoin price is up 2.2% today. The total market capitalization is $580 billion and the dominance is 48.9%. The fear and greed index came in at 50 (neutral).
The Bitcoin Fear and Greed indicator is ~50 neutral
Current price: $29,766 pic.twitter.com/3jrre9bJI2Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index August 9, 2023
Is volatility making a comeback?
We’ve written often recently that bitcoin’s volatility has fallen to an all-time low, in part due to lower trading volumes on exchanges. According to CCData, the Bitcoin volatility indicator (BVIN) until one All the time low It reached 36.3 on August 6th.
week chart: BTC dollarsThe Volatility Index (BVIN) hit an all-time low of 36.3 on August 6.
BVIN metrics BTC dollars Implicit volatility across @employee options, computed by CCData.
This comes weeks after # Bitcoin Trading in a narrow range and historically low volumes. pic.twitter.com/al42tRLV5L
– CCData (CCData_io) August 8, 2023
Of course, that was a few days ago and with that move higher, we may see the volatility return begin.
Inflation figures could cause a stir tomorrow
For example, tomorrow we have the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). Inflation figures are expected to rise slightly this time around and this could create fear in the financial markets.
The consensus estimate for Thursday’s inflation report is 3.3% (total US CPI year-over-year in July), up from 3.0% last month which was the low we saw in March 2021. The actual figure will be…
– Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) August 9, 2023
This doesn’t look good for bitcoin either. Recently, however, Bitcoin has been so weakly correlated with other markets that it has become increasingly difficult to estimate how the BTC price will react to macroeconomic developments.
Bitcoin mining is getting more and more difficult today
Firstly, today we get another increase in the so-called bitcoin mining difficulty, or difficulty. According to data from BTC.com The difficulty will be adjusted in about 5 hours. However, it’s only estimated to be 0.3% this time around, so it’s not likely to cause much of a stir.
American dollar # its price Full (30D) is nearing a one-year low.
It currently stands at around 27% while its one-year low on January 7 was 25.4%.
When volumes remain low for an extended period of time, you will usually see the effect of the following spring cabbage.
Watch what happened last time👇: pic.twitter.com/DBF63N7gB5
Hashprice Guy (CryptoOptionsOG) August 8, 2023
Bitcoin whales seem amazing
However, we are seeing some positive developments with yesterday’s rally. Almost $400 million in bitcoin passed through whalesAnd Major investors, including those from stock exchanges, reports analyst James Van Straten.
approximately $400 million or so # Bitcoin It was withdrawn from the exchanges yesterday.
The third largest outflow in 2023.
Outflows of whales have occurred from Gemini and Bithumb. pic.twitter.com/7JpCDOejIB– James F. Street (@jimmyvs24) August 9, 2023
Cryptoquant founder Ki Young Ju reports that bitcoin whales have taken “huge long” positions at $29,000. It indicates the degree of trust between these large investors, but it can also lead to the so-called long press It results if there are no other factors besides them.
# Bitcoin The whales opened huge long positions at $29,000.https://t.co/WulPUE47ab https://t.co/GNmIiRJ7EJ pic.twitter.com/CbJsn06plF
– Ki Young Jo (@ki_young_ju) August 8, 2023
Bitcoin price resumes the battle at $30,000
According to analyst Mortensen Bach, a surprise in the inflation figures could push bitcoin higher and finally break above $30,000.
# Bitcoin – Bouncing from adding the area mentioned last week! $30K is still a struggle but a surprise ahead #CPI Report may send! 💥🚀#BTC # encrypt dollar spy QQQ$ https://t.co/YZwOwOugwo pic.twitter.com/EhlVXtZaEd
– Bach (MortensenBach) August 8, 2023
Analyst Rect Capital remains somewhat more cautious. For the analyst, it is important for the price to close above $29,250 this week to show that selling pressure is easing around $30,000.
#BTC It rebounded straight to ~$30,000
last week and some time in late April, BTC dollars It was able to do the same but ended up as a bullish fuse
Which is why a weekly close above $29,250 is so important to show that seller pressure at this ~$29,900-$30,100 gets weaker.# encrypt # Bitcoin https://t.co/t26zlUBJLX pic.twitter.com/99Uer547JZ
– Rekt Capital (rektcapital) August 8, 2023
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