It was a large-scale swap that took months of negotiations: Russian spies and an assassin were exchanged earlier this month for journalists, foreign tourists, Russian human rights activists and members of the Russian opposition, which is now committed not to alienate the Russian people.

Andrei Pivovarov was imprisoned in a Russian penal colony three weeks ago, but now he is unexpectedly spending his honeymoon in Berlin. The wedding took place in prison before he was sent to the penal colony. The opposition leader from St. Petersburg was arrested on a plane in 2021 for participating in a so-called “undesirable organization.”

Andrei Pivovarov was imprisoned in a stone cage measuring three by four metres. “I had no contact with my lawyer or loved ones. We received no information.”

Now Pivovarov is free. But what are the opposition’s plans in exile? Do they know how to unite and how? The dissident himself is optimistic about this. “Our voice may carry less weight outside Russia than if we spoke from prison. But on the other hand, we can now communicate without exposing ourselves to great risks in Russia. Because I am sure that in two years or three times I will be sent back to the penal colony.”

Russia expert Hubert Smits sees more obstacles ahead. “The opposition is mainly interested in each other. It’s as if they are still competing for the position after Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny. They are focused on themselves. These people can really play an important role, as long as they know how to unite.”

Although you can’t get rid of the Russian regime from the outside, Smits believes. “They have to reinvent themselves. The Putin regime has to be overthrown in Russia itself.”

Smiths started The interview With three opposition figures after their release. “They used the meeting with the media to highlight their current political positions. Although they said they were against the war in Ukraine, they did not talk about the Ukrainian population being bombed daily by Russian soldiers. They also criticized the way it was being done.” Western countries support Ukraine.

This is what Pivovarov said interview Once again, she openly expresses her opposition to supporting the Ukrainian armed forces, Smets said. “This is unacceptable to me,” he added. “I am still a Russian politician,” Pivovarov said, adding that Russian soldiers fighting against Ukraine are not doing so voluntarily, but are driven by law, fear and poverty.

Smeets says that Pivovarov opposes general Western sanctions. According to him, these missiles should specifically target Putin’s entourage. “He is not the only opposition figure on this issue. There are more who want the sanctions not to affect the Russian population. Because the criticism is that the West is pushing ordinary Russians into the hands of the Kremlin,” he added.

The three defectors who were exchanged do not yet understand the consequences of the war in Ukraine, Smits says. “The opposition has always been interested in Putin’s regime, but the war has made it broader. They have to connect these issues. If Putin has difficulty in the war, that will give the opposition opportunities.”

According to Smets, the question is whether the opposition is ready to think about its relationship to the war in Ukraine. A war that could also determine Putin’s future. “Will they show solidarity with the citizens of Ukraine in the war against Russia or will they continue to communicate with the citizens of Russia? The latter is what they want to do at the moment,” he asked.

For Pivovarov, the success of the Russian opposition is only a matter of time. He contradicts News hour He expresses support for Ukraine and says he was misunderstood in the previous interview. “We plan to come back. We believe that change is inevitable. We may have to be abroad now, but we definitely plan to come back to Russia later. Definitely.”

Most of Vladimir Putin’s critics have been killed in the past 12 years, are serving long prison sentences or have emigrated abroad. Watch our video about the Russian opposition: