Paths to the top four for eight teams

As College Football Playoff weekend approaches, here’s each team’s simplest path to a top-four finish with a win and the likely path with a loss.

There is a scenario where this year’s College Football Playoff does not include the SEC champion.

Here’s everything it takes: Alabama beats Georgia, Michigan beats Iowa, Washington beats Oregon, Florida State beats Louisville, and Texas beats Oklahoma State.

In this case, the top four would start with the undefeated Wolverines, unbeaten Huskies, and unbeaten Seminoles. While that will be a judgment call by the playoff selection committee, fourth place could go to Texas, thanks to the Longhorns’ non-conference win in Tuscaloosa earlier this season.

While sticking your butts in at one end of the spectrum, this is just one of dozens of scenarios that could unfold over conference championship weekend.

Here’s how things could play out for the eight teams still in contention for the playoffs, with each team’s simplest path to the top four with a win and the most likely path with a loss:

Georgia

How does the Bulldog enter:

Georgia had lost all three of its previous SEC Championship games with the Crimson Tide. A win would lock the Bulldogs into the top seed.

How the Bulldogs get the loss:

Louisville beats Florida State.
Oklahoma State wins over Texas.

That would leave Michigan at No. 1 and Washington at No. 2 if the Huskies beat Oregon. (Alabama could rise up to six spots to No. 2 if UW loses, though the Crimson Tide would match the Ducks either way.) With Florida State and Texas also eliminated, Georgia will compete for No. 4 with Ohio. State, and that’s a comparison the Bulldogs will win.

Michigan

How does Wolverine enter:

The Wolverines will be the No. 2 seed if Georgia beats Alabama.

How the Wolverines get the loss:

Georgia wins over Alabama.
Washington wins over Oregon.
Louisville beats Florida State.
Oklahoma State wins over Texas.

That would leave room for Georgia, Washington and two Big Ten teams in the Wolverines and Buckeyes.

Washington

How to enter husky dogs:

Washington could be the top seed if Alabama beats Georgia and Michigan loses to Iowa, but the Huskies will almost certainly be no lower than third.

How Huskies get lost:

Georgia wins over Alabama.
Iowa wins over Michigan.
Louisville beats Florida State.
Oklahoma State wins over Texas.

The key result is an Iowa State win over Michigan, as that would make Ohio State the No. 3 seed in the Big Ten. That should eliminate the Buckeyes, although the committee could decide otherwise. With the Tide, Seminoles and Longhorns also out of the mix, the remaining teams are Georgia, Oregon, Washington and Michigan. Although the Huskies have the better resume, they would be demoted to fourth in this scenario to avoid a scheduled third matchup with the Ducks.

Florida State

How to get into the Seminoles:

Don’t buy into the theory that Florida State can be ruled out with a win over Louisville. The undefeated Power Five champions were and will remain locked in the four-team field, so the Seminoles don’t really have anything to worry about.

How the Seminoles get the loss:

If Georgia, Michigan and Washington win, one-loss Florida State will bounce back from Texas. If Georgia, Michigan and Texas win, the Seminoles lose out on the comparison with Oregon State. If the four undefeated teams lose, the playoff will consist of Alabama, Oregon, Georgia and one each of Michigan, Ohio State or Washington. Basically, there’s a guarantee that there will be enough one-loss teams still standing after Saturday to keep the Seminoles out of the field with a loss in the ACC Tournament.

Oregon

How do ducks get in?

Oregon State could be the top seed with wins over Alabama and Iowa. More importantly, the Ducks are likely to advance undefeated Florida State and avoid a semifinal matchup with Georgia. (Unless the Ducks would rather play the Bulldogs than Michigan, in which case that’s not a good thing.)

How Ducks Get Lost:

This will be Oregon’s second loss. Even the fact that they both made it as undefeated Power Five champions and even if the two losses were by one possession wouldn’t be enough for the Ducks.

Ohio State

How to enter Buckeyes:

Georgia wins over Alabama.
Michigan wins over Iowa
Washington wins over Oregon.
Louisville beats Florida State.
Oklahoma State wins over Texas.

Yes, the Buckeyes need help. Specifically, Ohio State must take Oregon, Florida and Texas out of the equation. As you can see, this scenario requires something very uncomfortable from the Buckeyes’ fan base: rooting for Michigan to beat Iowa.

opinion: Texas State could be a big snub when the College Football Playoff field is announced

Texas

How to enter the Longhorns:

Oklahoma State won.
Georgia wins over Alabama.
Louisville beats Florida State.

First and foremost, Texas needs to lose the FSU in order to open up a spot in the field. While Texas and Florida State’s wins, combined with Alabama’s wins, create an environment in which the SEC doesn’t make the playoffs, this also sets up the scenario where the Longhorns compete for fourth place with the Crimson Tide and Bulldogs. Even if the committee continues to place high importance on a head-to-head win over the Tide, that’s a scenario the Longhorns might want to avoid. So, to be safe, the easiest way to get into the top four also involves losing to Alabama.

How the Longhorns get the loss:

Double-loss Texas is out of the picture.

Alabama

How does the crimson tide enter:

In this scenario, Alabama would advance against Florida State and meet the Pac-12 champion in the semifinals. As previously mentioned, the Tide could be the No. 2 seed if Oregon beats Washington and could end up as the No. 1 seed if the Ducks win and Iowa tops Michigan.

How the Crimson Tide gets the loss:

Losing twice, Alabama has no chance.

Vita Walton

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