US President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a long-term military agreement at the G7 summit in Italy. It stated that the US would continue to support the Ukrainians militarily for a period of ten years. The deal includes talk of a hotline connection between the two presidents, which BNR’s foreign commentator Bernard Hummelberg calls ‘spicy’.

“It’s a very impressive deal,” Hummelberg says. ‘Quite a collection.’ This includes F-16s, training, refurbishment and budget support. But, Hummelburg notes, “What’s really interesting to me is that they’ve also agreed to have some kind of hotline connection.” If anything goes wrong, Biden and Zelensky will meet within 24 hours to consult. A ‘spicy’ meeting, Hummelberg says, as Ukraine is not a NATO member, but it is a move that reminds him a little.

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While Article 5 states that an attack on one NATO member country is an attack on all NATO member states, Article 4 states that emergency consultation of members should take place in advance in the event of anything going wrong. “It sounds like an Article 4 formula,” Hummelburg says. “So for the NATO savvy, it’s a very exciting deal.”

Step to membership?

Is this the first step towards NATO membership for Ukraine? ‘In any case, it gives a pat on the back and sends a signal: please continue with your application.’ But, Hummelburg insists, membership is not the issue. An application takes a long time, and caution should be exercised when making a firm commitment until the war continues, he says. Because if the decision to accede Ukraine is taken too soon, it will be a direct conflict with Russia. ‘Until this conflict is finally negotiated, membership cannot be discussed.’ However, according to Hummelberg, you may find that the deal with the US offers a sausage.

Money

The deal costs a lot of money, money that has to come from somewhere. In part, this support will be financed by NATO member states in Europe and other EU countries, Hummelburg explains. The Americans want to finance part of the project with Russian assets frozen in Western banks. ‘It’s a very complicated story. As the money cannot be confiscated, it is illegal.’

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But the money is already earning about 3 billion in interest. The accountants at the G7 have now said: If you promise Ukraine 50 billion annually and give it a loan, the 3 billion interest on those Russian assets will be enough to meet the obligations of that loan, Hummelburg says. “It’s a complicated tactic, but it might work.”

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However, this does not end the debate. The Russians are angry because they argue that Russia owns the interest on the deposit as well. However, Hamelburg thinks the trick will eventually catch on. ‘By taking these kinds of steps, the G7 is saying to Putin: We are not standing still either. You can dump as many men as you want, but at some point we will outgrow you. That’s a bit wishful thinking, but that’s the signal they’re sending.’

Trump

The deal between Biden and Zelensky covers a ten-year period, but there is a possibility of the re-election in November of Donald Trump, who has been highly critical of his support for Ukraine. “I think Trump could easily cancel this deal, and there’s a reasonable chance he will,” Hummelberg notes.

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Yet Trump will see some interest in deals with Ukraine. “He is a transactional man, and the operation requires a lot of weapons. Most of the weapons are bought and manufactured in the United States, so the American arms industry benefits from such a conflict. And that will not go unnoticed by Trump. But the reality is that if Trump wins, he can cancel the deal a day after he takes office. And He will not hesitate to do so.’