If elected president, Trump plans to implement a more protectionist trade policy. Therefore, Lize Nauta, researcher and economist at RaboResearch, thinks it is important to be more aware of the extent of the Netherlands’ dependence on the US. He has mapped trade flows with the US on behalf of RaboResearch.
‘Netherlands should focus more on dependence on US’
According to Nauta, since the pandemic, there has been an awareness that the Netherlands is dependent on global supply chains, and if trade barriers arise, this can have far-reaching consequences. At the time, it was mainly about issues with trade with China, but according to Nauta, the Netherlands was also very dependent on the US on many fronts.
There are no alternatives
The Netherlands receives a number of products, raw materials and semi-finished products from the United States, specifically Nauta mentions chemicals, pharmaceuticals and certain metals. These metals are particularly important because they are used in high-tech industry, defense and ICT. For example, research shows that beryllium comes mainly from the United States. If for any reason trade with the United States were disrupted, there are virtually no good alternative sources of that metal: the United States is the largest producer worldwide.
China
If the Netherlands had to switch to suppliers other than the US for these types of raw materials, China would in many cases be the only one left. That’s why Nauta thinks policymakers would be wise to pay attention to it, because China is not an ally at the moment. However, it probably won’t get to that point under Donald Trump’s second term: ‘Before we get here, we have a lot more scenarios. The chances of not being able to get these items from the US are slim.’
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