South Africa has entered uncharted territory. For the first time since the democratic renaissance in 1994, the ruling African National Congress lost its majority in the national parliament. Nelson Mandela’s party became the largest in Wednesday’s election, but it will have to form a coalition with another party in order to continue to govern at the national level. This has not happened since the National Unity Government in 1994.
According to forecasts Thursday afternoon, the loss is greater than previously expected. The former liberation movement receives about 42 percent of the votes in a model from the National Council for Scientific Research (CSIR). This is about 16 percentage points lower than in the 2019 election, and the country’s largest opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, which governs the province surrounding Cape Town, will win slightly, at 22 percent.
The real winner of the election is former president Jacob Zuma’s left-wing populist party, Umkhonto we Sizwe (MK), which was founded in December. Despite not being allowed to hold a seat in parliament due to his conviction, his party appears to be winning at least 14% of the vote nationally. In Zuma’s home province of KwaZulu-Natal, the MK is on track to achieve a large majority. So revenge on Zuma, who was ousted by the ANC in 2018 after years of rampant corruption and the erosion of the state apparatus, is beautiful. The division that emerged in the party at that time is now also reflected in the election results.
Fast turnaround
The ANC has always seen itself as one Spacious church, a large church where all were welcomed for the greater good of the nation and discussions of ideology were of secondary importance. But since the end of Thabo Mbeki’s presidency (1999-2008), internal divisions have increased. This is roughly about a difference of opinion about the economy and the role of the state.
On the one hand, there are people who want to continue pro-market social democratic policies. Former businessman Ramaphosa is now the face of this. It builds on the Mbeki years, when South Africa’s economy was still growing rapidly.
In contrast, there is a camp that calls for “rapid economic transformation” due to the massive inequality in the country. According to this group, the state should be given a stronger role in the economy through nationalization of companies and expropriation of land in order to achieve faster redistribution between the rich and the poor. In 2013, former ANC youth leader Julius Malema created his own EFF (Economic Freedom Fighters) party with this call, and last December Zuma hijacked the name of the former armed branch of the ANC (‘MK’) to start Turn his own party.
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However, according to Ramaphosa’s entourage, Zuma’s years as president show that this rapid transformation is actually a pretext for self-enrichment through the state. They say that only an open, liberal economy can reduce massive poverty in the long run. South Africa continues to have the most developed economy on the continent.
Therefore, Ramaphosa promised to purge Zuma after nine years. In the 2019 campaign, he spoke of a “new dawn” that would dawn. This was not limited to Zuma only, but also some of those close to him. He has cracked down on corruption and depoliticized key state entities. But according to his critics, he did not take sufficient measures, and always put the interests of the party above the interests of the country. The party that had led South Africa for thirty years was not allowed to collapse.
This appears to have happened now. Having previously tried to bend the ANC to his will, Zuma is now forcing the party to listen to him in a different way. For example, in a government coalition. There is great concern, especially in the South African business community, about how this might happen.
Alliances
Because with this loss, the question is whether Ramaphosa can retain his position as party leader, and thus as president of the country. If the ANC’s support had been just under 50 per cent, it could have proposed a coalition with another small party. Now he needs a bigger partner. From the point of view of part of the party, cooperation with Zuma is clear. After competing in recent years, Ramaphosa is unlikely to give in. His deputy, Paul Mashatile, the former premier of the Gauteng province around Johannesburg, is ready to do just that, according to party insiders.
The opposition Liberal Democratic Alliance party says it is prepared to do a lot to achieve this, as they put it:Doomsdayscenario.” The party has a good reputation for governing the province surrounding Cape Town. According to estimates, it once again achieved an absolute majority there on Wednesday. Earlier, Democratic Alliance leader John Steenhuisen hinted that he did not want to completely rule out cooperation with the ANC on National level Whether this could prevent cooperation between the ANC and one of the populist parties and it remains to be seen whether the ANC is willing and able to take this step in the coming weeks.
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