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The housing shortage has increased sharply within a year. In 2023 there will be a shortage of 390,000 homes. Last year it was still 315 thousand homes. Only around 2028 will the malaise in the housing market ease slightly.
This is evident from new forecasts from ABF Research. This research agency annually calculates the housing shortage on behalf of the Home Office.
The researchers looked at population growth and projected housing construction. Previous projections had projected the housing shortage to decline as early as 2026.
The housing shortage has risen sharply because the number of households in the Netherlands is growing faster than expected. According to the ABF, this is largely due to the arrival of Ukrainian refugees. There are also fewer places in nursing homes, so that the elderly can stay longer in their homes.
The target is out of sight
At the same time, fewer homes will be built in the near future than previously expected. This is partly due to high mortgage interest, which means homes are often out of reach for buyers, and there is a reluctance among project developers to build.
The research agency assumes that the government’s target of building 900,000 homes by 2030 will not be met. To achieve the outgoing housing minister, de Jonge’s goal of reducing the housing shortage, more new homes are needed than previously planned: 981,000.
De Jonge says he has already seen the disappointing numbers coming. “This is not unexpected, but it underscores the need to ensure that the number of new homes increases faster than the number of people that are added. We will have to make up for the housing shortfall. And so we will have to move faster and with more guidance, building affordable homes.”
The housing shortage is expected to decline after 2030, to 205,000 homes in 2038. However, the research office points out that it is difficult to accurately predict population trends, and thus demand for homes, because it is uncertain how many immigrants will come to them. Holland.
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