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  Sjoerd den das

  China Correspondent

China’s New Silk Road project celebrates its anniversary. Ten years after the party leader and China’s president first revealed his plans, Xi Jinping will hang wreaths in Beijing tomorrow with guest of honour, Vladimir Putin. Western leaders, with some exceptions, do not come to Beijing. But those who wish to participate in this ceremony will be rewarded.

At every intersection, every pedestrian bridge, every overpass: security guards and police officers are stationed every 200 meters, sometimes with soldiers from the People’s Liberation Army. They must maintain order and prevent raising protest slogans, as happened previously around the party conference.

Xi’s celebration should not be spoiled. The only slogans on the streets of Beijing these days are slogans Belt and RoadChina’s comprehensive new Silk Road project. “This project unites people from all over the world,” says an elderly woman, pointing to one of the advertising slogans. “Together we are on our way to a better life.”

The man who attended Tuesday’s business forum was equally enthusiastic. “We have more friends this way. We make friends all over the world, right?”

That’s what Xi was hoping for when he first spoke about his ideas in the Kazakh capital, Astana, in 2013. “We should jointly build an economic belt along the Silk Road,” Xi said at the time. This was not a crystallized master plan, but the seeds of an alternative world order, dominated by China, were planted.

Initially, it was mainly about investing in infrastructure and promoting trade. A way for Beijing to do outside China what it was already doing at home: build roads, railways, bridges and (air) ports. For example, a railway from China to Laos, or a high-speed line connecting the Indonesian capital, Jakarta, to Bandung. The idea was that economic growth would come naturally.

“We would like this road to end at the port of Rotterdam,” Prime Minister Mark Rutte said with a laugh during a visit to China in early 2015. The Netherlands already participates with the Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank, which finances several Silk Road projects, but has not officially joined the initiative.

Italy did this, as the first country in the European Union and the only member of the G7. The promise of more trade and improved market access was one of the reasons Italy signed. Even though they came home from a rude awakening, because the Italians didn’t sell any more. “If you look at the numbers, it’s quite the opposite,” says Alessia Amighini of the Italian Institute for International Political Studies.

Last year, China exported goods worth $57 billion to Italy. In contrast, China bought only $16 billion worth of Italian goods. Thus, the trade deficit doubled within three years to about 41 billion dollars. “In terms of trade, it has been a disaster, and Italy is no exception. Often, only Chinese exports are increasing.” She will leave Italy again next year Belt and Road.

This is less easy for many other countries. Because of large investments in long-term projects, they are often more firmly in China’s grip. Many countries are hoping for debt relief or requesting an extension of repayment terms because repayment becomes a problem. In any case, the question is whether China can keep up the supply: given its country’s deteriorating economy and rising risks, it is offering fewer new loans.

The delegates who gathered in Beijing to celebrate the 10th anniversary remain as positive as ever. “We are building roads, a cement factory and a hotel,” said Mahaji Lam, who represents companies from Mozambique. “No country can offer quality as cheaply as China.” Lam says he does not fear growing Chinese influence. “Help is no longer just offering some water or something to eat. Here we learn how to fish.”

The Serbs at the top think the same way. “Ten years ago we had one highway,” says Daniel Nikolic, who has just arrived in Beijing with President Vucic. “Now we have more kilometers of highways than were built in the former Yugoslavia.” “The first high-speed line in Serbia is also being built, which will connect Belgrade with Budapest.”

The atrocities committed by Hamas in Israel and the situation in Gaza, as well as the war in Ukraine, were not discussed. “This is a Chinese forum. It should be about business,” said a Middle Eastern diplomat who requested anonymity.

Western diplomats in Beijing agree on the summit. Not only have they become more skeptical about Xi’s new Silk Road; No one wants to end up in the same room with Putin. With the exception of Hungarian President Viktor Orban, no European Union countries sent a delegation to the summit.

Attendees say they don’t have much difficulty navigating the Silk Road Party’s guest list. “That’s one thing for politicians,” says Serbian Nikolic when asked if he finds his country’s presence on the same stage as Putin problematic.

Serbia today signed thirty new agreements, including a free trade agreement with China. He added: “But I don’t think this could be a problem, because we don’t have a problem with Vladimir Putin. We also don’t participate in the sanctions against Russia.”